Zaid Ibrahim, to field or not to field?

By Zefry Dahalan - Free Malaysia Today

SEREMBAN: As the clock ticks down for the April 25 Hulu Selangor by-election, the burning question is - Will PKR be able to retain the parliamentary seat, which it won with a razor-thin majority in the 2008 general election?

The by-election is crucial for PKR, which is being rocked by an internal crisis. Over the past month, the Anwar Ibrahim-led party has lost four MPs, three of whom resigned, and one sacked.

A victory in the by-election would boost morale among members and silence the critics who argue that the opposition party is on the verge of imploding.

On the other side of the fence, some quarters view the contest as a referrendum on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak's leadership, with tomorrow marking his 100th day in office.

Since Najib took over the reins in April 2009, Barisan Nasional had scored an impressive by-election victory in Bagan Pinang, Negeri Sembilan.

However, that win was mostly attributed to the popularity factor of the Umno candidate Mohd Isa Samad.

So, according to observers, it is the Hulu Selangor by-election which would be an acid test for the Najib administration, and its '1Malaysia' clarion call.

The Hulu Selangor by-election has also provided MIC deputy president G Palanivel with a lifeline.

After having lost the seat, which he held for three terms, by a mere 198 votes, this contest could reverse his political fortunes.

Is Zaid the best bet?

All eyes are now on PKR, with regards to who the party would field in the Malay-majority constituency, which also has a sizeable number of Chinese and Indian voters.

News reports claim that there is strong indication that PKR may field its Hulu Selangor treasurer, neurosurgeon Dr Halili Rahmat.

Also mentioned as a possible contender is Zaid Ibrahim, who some in the party, like PKR Negeri Sembilan vice-chairman M Ravi, believe is the best man for the job.

He said the former law minister has the best chance of retaining the seat for PKR even if BN fields a candidate from Umno instead of MIC.

According to the Port Dickson state assemblyman, he carried out a random survey in his constituency and discovered that the voters preferred Zaid.

"Even the Chinese and Indian communities want Zaid to contest as he carries the multiracial tagline,” he told FMT.

Another grassroots PKR leader from Selangor, who preferred to remain anomymous, said the people know that Zaid is a principled politician.

“You tell me, who would resign as a minister just because he did not agree with what the government was doing. Most would just swallow their pride and nod their heads.

“But Zaid did not. He openly voiced his disagreement and tendered his resignation,” he said.

The PKR leader was referring to Zaid's resignation as the law minister in September 2008 after disagreeing with the decision to detain opposition politician Teresa Kok, controversial blogger Raja Petra Raja Kamaruddin and a Chinese newspaper journalist under the Internal Security Act.

'It would be disastrous'

Meanwhile, some observers warned that fielding Zaid in a semi-urban Malay-majority seat could prove disastrous.

“We all know that Zaid is seen as a 'moderate Muslim leader with a very Westernised outlook' and his opponents are bound to portray him as 'not Malay or Islamic enough'.

“Umno would campaign that Zaid, who left Umno to join the multiracial PKR, is another 'traitor to the race' like Anwar and he would dance to the tune of the non-Malays unlike the MIC candidate who would listen to instructions from Umno,” they added.

The observers also pointed out that in Zaid's case, his place of origin would also be an issue.

“He is from Kelantan, and therefore local Umno leaders would argue why should the voters cast their ballots for a 'foreigner',” they said.

Furthermore, they noted that a defeat in the elections would just provide additional fodder to his enemies within PKR.

According to the observers, it is best that Zaid gives this contest a skip, and opt for a more urban seat in the next general election.

The Hulu Selangor by-election will take place on April 25. Nominations are on April 17. The by-election is held following the death of its PKR incumbent Zainal Abidin Ahmad last Thursday.

Zainal won the seat, which has some 63,000 registered voters, at the 2008 general election with a slim majority of 198 votes, beating BN/MIC's G Palanivel who was a three-term Hulu Selangor MP prior to the defeat. BN is expected to nominate Palanivel to contest again.