Nevertheless,
Chinese voters have poor alternatives. DAP and KeADILan are not
sufficiently organized to provide a real alternative to BN,
particularly given the disproportionate powers wielded by the UMNO-led
coalition. The Pan-Malaysia Islamic Party (PAS), the strongest
Malay-based opposition party, holds no appeal for the Chinese
electorate. Without better alternatives, MCA and Gerakan will not lose
their dominance of the Chinese vote.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUALA LUMPUR 001975
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, MY
SUBJECT: MALAYSIA’S CHINESE MINORITY: THE POLITICS OF MARGINALIZATION
REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 942
B. KUALA LUMPUR 1935
C. KUALA LUMPUR 1942
D. KUALA LUMPUR 1913
Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b, d).
Summary
1.
(C) Malaysia's Chinese minority struggles to find new footing in
national politics. In September Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan
Yew ignited a nation-wide debate on the marginalization of Malaysia's
Chinese minority.
Leaders from across the Chinese political
spectrum agreed, at least privately, with LKY's conclusion and confided
that most Chinese Malaysians feel marginalized by the United Malays
National Organization (UMNO)'s race-based, Bumiputera policies.
As
the Chinese community grows restless, Chinese parties of the UMNO-led
National Coalition (Barisan Nasional, BN) fear losses to opposition
parties in the next general election. The People's Movement Party
(Gerakan) faces change at the top and candidates have begun to vie for
the coveted chief minister's job in Penang.
Many Chinese have
questioned their own leaders after Prime Minister Abdullah humiliated
current Penang Chief Minister and claimed the Gerakan-led state
government is marginalizing ethnic Malays in Penang.
The
Democratic Action Party (DAP) stands to gain Chinese votes, but remains
unorganized and ill-prepared to capitalize on Chinese discontent.
Opposition parties in general fail to present a valid alternative to the
BN. A think tank report on Bumiputeras' economic share created another
rallying point for the Chinese community's expressions of
marginalization.
While post-Mahathir political openings allow
Chinese political discontent to bubble to the surface, ethnic Chinese
voters appear to have no realistic alternatives.
End Summary.
Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew Ignites a Fire
2.
(SBU) In September, Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew ignited a
political firestorm when he commented during a seminar that Singapore's
neighbors, Malaysia and Indonesia, systematically marginalized their
Chinese minorities. Cries of outrage were heard from Malaysia's ethnic
Malay leaders.
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi publicly demanded
an apology from Lee, and the two exchanged highly-publicized letters
demanding and feigning apology. Dozens of senior Malay officials
derided Lee for his comments and a few Chinese members of the ruling
Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government came to the defense of GoM
and denied there was any systematic marginalization of Malaysia's
minorities.
But most Chinese Malaysians agreed with Lee, and
Chinese politicians that denied the accusation are now viewed with
growing disdain.
MCA admits marginalization and fears backlash
3.
(C) Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) Vice President Ong Tee Keat,
who also serves as the Deputy Minister of Higher Education, was one of
the few ministerial level Chinese politicians who refused to deny
publicly or privately the fact that Chinese Malaysians are
marginalized.
In a private meeting with poloff Ong commented
that although Chinese leaders from MCA and the People's Movement Party
(Gerakan) were bound to support government (i.e. UMNO) positions, their
Chinese constituents were not satisfied with their responses. Ong
commented that in cases such as this, "silence is sometimes our only
valid response." But he acknowledged, "of course we are marginalized,
big business to small stall owners know that -- but MCA cannot admit
it."
So when pressed by reporters for a public response to
Lee's accusation, Ong related an old Chinese proverb -- "Whether the
water in the tea cup is hot or cold, he who drinks it knows best."
4.
(C) According to Ong, MCA will face its greatest electoral challenge
ever in the next two years. In his opinion, there was great
dissatisfaction with the status quo in the Chinese community that was
only partially seen in the Sarawak elections when the opposition
Democratic Action Party (DAP) won six seats (Ref A).
"Sarawak
was a wake-up call for all Chinese parties," Ong told poloff. MCA and
Gerakan have studied the results of the Sarawak elections, but are not
sure they can counter the growing discontent in their communities. The
Chinese component parties of BN no longer have community focused
development projects to show their constituents, as these have all been
redirected to Malay communities.
"There was once a day in
Malaysia when MCA would get the left-overs, but now we are just hoping
to get some crumbs from the UMNO table," said Ong. Ong admitted that an
example of only getting the crumbs could be seen in the Ninth Malaysia
plan wherein the government planned for the construction of 180 new
elementary and secondary schools, none of which would be vernacular
schools for either the Chinese or Indian communities.
Only
after loud outcries from the Chinese community did the Ministry of
Education "cave in" and announce that two of the 180 schools would be
designated as Chinese vernacular schools. Again, MCA could not provide a
proportional voice for the Chinese minority, and Ong believed the
community took note.
Prime Minister claims Malays marginalized in Penang
5.
(C) In an ironic exercise in hypocrisy and political expediency prior
to the UMNO district meetings in September, Prime Minister Abdullah
Badawi echoed the earlier remarks of his son in law, Khairy Jamaluddin,
and publicly charged Penang's Chief Minister Dr. Koh Tsu Koon, with
systematically marginalizing the ethnic Malays of Penang.
Penang is Malaysia's only Chinese majority state (but only by a razor thin margin) and is led by BN coalition partner Gerakan.
Despite
the conflict resolution principles touted by the Barisan Nasional, at
an UMNO divisional meeting in Penang, Abdullah publicly chided Koh and
demanded immediate action to address the needs of the marginalized Malay
community.
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak later called
for the Penang Chief Minister to more equally divide his executive
powers with the Malay deputy chief minister, while federal Education
Minister Hishamuddin Tun Hussein demanded Koh take unconditional
immediate action to address the needs of the Malay community in Penang.
According to sources who attended the meeting, Koh was dumbfounded and
unprepared to respond to the Prime Minister's accusations.
Penang
State Executive Councillor Dr. Toh Kin Woon later admitted in a private
meeting with poloff that the PM thoroughly humiliated Koh, and although
Malays in Penang have a higher per capita income than Malays in many
other states, Koh was unprepared and unable to respond.
Gerakan
Central Committee member, Lee Kah Choon, stated to poloff that Koh was
viewed by the whole Chinese community as weak: "it is just his
personality, and everyone comes to expect it." It was this type of
weakness, opined Toh, that places BN's Chinese component parties in
danger of losing ground to DAP or the People's Justice Party (KeADILan)
in more mixed districts.
(
Comment: Chief
Minister Koh is an intellectual, who holds a doctorate in physics from
Princeton. His technocratic style makes him popular with corporate
leaders, who appreciate his business friendly approach to governing, but
is ill-suited to the cut-and-thrust of party politics.
End Comment.)
Gerakan plans for leadership change
6.
(SBU) Koh, who in addition to duties as the Chief Minister of Penang is
also Deputy President of Gerakan, is expected to become the Gerakan
president in April 2007 when current president Dr. Lim Keng Yaik steps
down. Koh's elevation to party head will likely mean he will move from
state politics to a federal ministerial position, and several Gerakan
politicians are already jockeying for the anticipated vacancy as Penang
Chief Minister.
The three front runners for the job in Penang
are currently Lee Kah Choon, Gerakan Deputy Secretary General and
Parliamentary Secretary for the Ministry of Health; Dr. Teng Hock Nan,
Gerakan Vice President; and Chia Kwang Chye, Gerakan Party Secretary
General.
7. (C) In a separate meeting with poloff, Lee Kah
Choon admitted that, like MCA, Gerakan too would face a strong political
challenge in the next general election, as they have not been able to
overcome the perception that the Chinese community is continually
discriminated against by the Malay majority government.
Lee's
only hope was that DAP "would continue to run dishwashers and truck
drivers" for state and federal parliamentary seats, and thus would
remain uncompetitive in the general elections in Penang.
In
another meeting, Dr. Toh Kin Woon lamented that UMNO was resorting to
"blatant racist tactics that Malaysia has not seen since the late
1980s." He attributed the rise in UMNO's racist rhetoric to PM
Abdullah's weakness as a leader.
"Malaysians need a strong
leader who knows when to be ruthless. Mahathir knew how to be ruthless,
but he became cruel, and that's when he lost respect. Abdullah is not
cruel, but neither is he ruthless when he needs to be. He is just weak;
so he resorts to racist tactics to hold on to the majority Malays."
He
faulted Koh for not standing up to Abdullah regarding his accusations
of the Chinese marginalizing ethnic Malays in Penang, and opined that
such weakness in the party opened the door for the opposition to make
significant gains in then next general election.
The Democratic Action Party lacks a national strategy
8.
(C) Notwithstanding their successes in the Sarawak elections (ref A),
DAP has not yet formulated a national campaign strategy aimed at
capitalizing on the growing discontent in the Chinese community (also
see ref B).
In Penang, Member of Parliament Chow Kon Yeow (DAP
- Tanjong) admitted to poloff that his party traditionally has had very
little success in recruiting high caliber candidates for parliamentary
elections. Such past failures have influenced the party's motivation to
recruit more viable and electable candidates.
According to
Chow, DAP often struggled with supporting issues germane to the Chinese
community, such as promoting vernacular schools, and therefore, at times
seems to alienate itself from its natural voting base. Chow indicated
that DAP's current plan was to continue to run young party activists who
had previously contested elections in Penang and hope that discontent
with BN policies would draw voters to vote merely for the party rather
than the quality of the candidate.
Since many of the seats in
Penang currently are held by third term parliamentarians, term limit
laws prevent the incumbents from seeking re-election. DAP hoped for a
more level playing field if their candidates were not battling
incumbents, Chow said, and thus anticipated better electoral results in
Penang and other metropolitan areas of the country where Chinese voters
are concentrated.
9. (U) DAP Secretary General Lim Guan Eng
has completed his term of exclusion following his conviction under the
publications act, and DAP insiders expected him to contest for another
seat in parliament in the next election.
Lim and his wife have
fallen out of favor with party members in Melaka, so Lim likely would
challenge a seat in Penang or in Kuala Lumpur. Such mobility is common
among Chinese candidates, and due to his relative popularity, party
officials were quite optimistic of Lim's election and ability to join
his father Lim Kit Siang as a leader in the opposition.
Bumiputera Equity: Chinese cry foul
10.
(SBU) The GOM's negative reaction to the recent public release of the
Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI)'s analysis of bumiputera
equity in the marketplace has stoked the fires of Chinese discontent
(Ref C). With characteristic cries of sedition for daring to challenge
government statistics, ethnic Malay politicians, including PM Abdullah
and DPM Najib have done all in their power to discredit the ASLI
report.
Despite pressuring the Malay president of ASLI, Mirzan
Mahathir, to retract the report, the Prime Minister and UMNO have not
been able to quiet the discussion of bumiputera equity and their
race-based policies aimed at perpetually increasing Malay market share.
(
Comment:
Mirzan Mahathir is the son of former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.
Ironically, the elder Mahathir and his two sons, Mirzan and Mukhriz,
continue to publicly champion bumiputera set-asides, leading one to
question the possible political maneuvers behind the release of the ASLI
report.
End Comment.)
11. (SBU)
Perhaps emboldened by his announcement that he will retire as Gerakan
president in April 2007, Dr. Lim Keng Yaik, Minister of Energy, Water
and Communications, stepped forward to challenge the government to
release its statistics and explain how Bumiputera equity is only 18.9
percent rather than the 45 percent ASLI found.
DPM Najib
replied that the GoM can certainly release its methodology for its more
"exhaustive study" and that Lim should not imply that the government is
not transparent. Despite Najib's remarks, the GoM has not released its
methodology, and UMNO continues to hope that this issue will die a quick
and quiet death.
Chinese politicians and activists, however,
do not yet seem willing to let the issue die, and although the study
reiterates what many Chinese have long believed, it now gives
quantifiable evidence to support their feelings of discrimination.
Comment
12.
(C) The increasingly strong Islamic identity of the dominant Malay
population has a natural corollary -- an increase in race based
politics. As Chinese sensitivities heighten regarding Malay-centric
policies, discontent with the status quo grows. Of note, political
openings in the post-Mahathir era have allowed greater public airing of
such discontent, albeit with limits.
Abdullah's inability to
shut down the divisive debate stands in stark contrast to Mahathir's
firm control. Comprising 25 percent of the total population, ethnic
Chinese Malaysians have the most to lose of all the minority groups from
the Bumiputera policies aimed at ever increasing Malay equity in the
marketplace, often at the expense of Chinese equity.
While no
one is yet predicting the collapse of the coalition Barisan Nasional,
growing discontent in the Chinese community has led many political
pundits to forecast that many Chinese will abandon MCA and Gerakan and
vote for DAP in the next election. We anticipate the next general
election will be held in the fourth quarter of 2007 or first quarter of
2008, and although UMNO is not in danger of losing significant numbers
of votes, Chinese component parties fear they will take a hit.
Nevertheless,
Chinese voters have poor alternatives. DAP and KeADILan are not
sufficiently organized to provide a real alternative to BN, particularly
given the disproportionate powers wielded by the UMNO-led coalition.
The Pan-Malaysia Islamic Party (PAS), the strongest Malay-based
opposition party, holds no appeal for the Chinese electorate. Without
better alternatives, MCA and Gerakan will not lose their dominance of
the Chinese vote.
LAFLEUR