Zambry (left) and Nizar will soon know if the BN takeover of Perak in 2009 is rejected by the people
THE people of Perak are waiting expectantly to cast their vote in the 13th general election for a very special reason.
The first shock for the people was when the Barisan Nasional (BN) state government fell in the 2008 general election for the first time since independence in 1957. Then, they had a second shock when the new Pakatan Rakyat state government fell in a dramatic tussle just one year later.
It was to escalate into a serious constitutional crisis involving the palace, Election Commission, courts, security forces and a very physical session in the state legislative assembly.
At the end of the turmoil, the BN took control of the state once again and the coalition has ruled for about four years since then.
But that was not the final word on the crisis. The ousted menteri besar Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin mounted a series of court challenges to reclaim the seat of government. However, after a full year, the Federal Court ruled that the BN's choice of menteri besar Datuk Seri Zambry Abdul Kadir was the rightful holder of the post.
The contest for control of the state erupted when three state assembly members, from the 32 that were from the Pakatan coalition, became BN-friendly independents thus changing the balance of power in the 59-member legislature.
Pakatan leaders stoutly maintained that the BN state government had no mandate to rule because they had not been voted in by the people. This was hotly debated at all levels of society, from the coffeeshops to cyberspace.
A common view was that the next general election would be a sort of referendum on whether the BN's action to take control of the state has the support of the people.
Of course, this view is not uniformly heard among the voters. Among the Chinese, a frequently aired opinion at the time of the crisis was that the Pakatan government was denied justice.
This could be because the Chinese were among the direct beneficiaries of a number of policy changes adopted by the Pakatan government. In particular, the decision to award land titles to holders of temporary occupancy licences (TOL) generated much goodwill for the new government. This was especially because the Chinese living in New Villages had been pressing for permanent titles since before independence, with little success.
A veteran political observer, Chong Soo Choon, 67, a long-time columnist for a Chinese daily, who provided in-depth analysis during the Perak power struggle, endorses this observation.
"Until today, the Chinese community around Ipoh think that the Pakatan government was unjustly overthrown, and people still talk about it during tea sessions," he said.
Chong, who lives in Ipoh, said that most of the Chinese he meets are of the opinion that if the Perak government had continued to be run by Pakatan, it would have performed on par with the Penang government and their living conditions could have improved as a result.
However, his ground observation shows that the Malays are split on this issue, with the older generation staunchly supporting the BN, and the younger generation rooting for change.
Undoubtedly, the BN government has tried to win back the people's support with a series of public-oriented programmes. Last year, the Perak government had restructured its water assets to pay back its RM1 billion debts to the federal government. The state government managed to reduce its debt to RM326million.
Also, more than 8,000 acres of land were allocated to Chinese independent schools, religious schools and Tamil schools, so that revenue generated from the land would be used to fund the schools. The Chinese educationists welcomed the allocation as this was seen as systemic funding to the school.
A BN leader, who wished to remain unidentified, expressed confidence that the coalition will win in the next general election as it has been working very hard to serve the people.
"We have not been any less effective than the Pakatan government," he told fz.com in a phone interview.
It is pertinent to ask whether voter sentiment about the change of government remains as strong today as it was during the period of political upheaval in 2009. This is especially because there have been a constant round of sensational political developments on the national stage in the intervening years, including allegations of grand corruption.
Feelings were certainly running high during the period of the political crisis. No one would have imagined that when Zambry was going to the Perak palace in Kuala Kangsar to be sworn in on Feb 6, 2009, he would be greeted by a boisterous protest of about a thousand people, mostly Malays, who were trying to block his motorcade.
However, as the BN state government settled into the job, the people became used to the new status quo and the Pakatan leaders decided to abide by the Federal court verdict in 2010.
Neverthess, Nizar believes that the high drama that took place in the state assembly sitting on May 7, 2009, when the rival coalitions literally fought for control of the legislature, remains freshly imprinted in the minds of the people, especially the Chinese.
"That particular incident will be a major factor for them (the Chinese) to give their support to Pakatan. They are in total disagreement with the BN because of the power grab," the ousted menteri besar said in an interview with fz.com.
However, Nizar admitted that the Malays and Indians do not share similar sentiments because of the manoeuvres by Perak Umno and the influence of the mainstream media.
He pointed out that the BN had justified the takeover by claiming that the Pakatan government was Chinese-led and that the BN had brought the Malays back into power.
As for the Indians, Nizar observed that the sentiment is quite split. Some of them are still supporting the BN, "but the community had shifted their support to PR now, with the help of not only our PR component parties but also Indian NGOs."
Perception war in Malay rural heartland
The Pakatan is fighting a perception war in the Malay rural heartland, where alternative sources of information are lacking. Nizar fears that the BN would use issues pertaining to the Malays' rights and the position of the Sultan to create fear among the Malays.
In the takeover issue in particular, even though the Perak Sultan's role was hotly debated among the Malays, most of them continue to respect the Sultan.
"One of the worrying issues now is that the BN is harping on the cooperation among PAS, PKR and DAP. This is used to haunt the Malays by saying that (if Pakatan takes over Putrajaya) the PM could be a non-Malay or a Christian and we are going to become a Christian state," said Nizar.
"The other issue the BN may insinuate is that PAS could commit treason against Tuanku Sultan (Azlan Shah)," he said.
This fear proved to be true during the Bukit Gantang by-election in April 2009, when the BN played up the perception that Nizar had committed treason against the Sultan. The BN's strategy was based on a phrase that Nizar had used when rejecting the Perak Sultan's order to step down during the takeover crisis.
In responding to the Sultan, Nizar had replied "Patik Mohon Derhaka" (Your servant begs to commit treason) arguing that it was not in the Sultan's power to issue that command since the head of the state government is chosen by the legislative assembly.
This became fodder for the BN's campaign during the Bukit Gantang parliamentary by-election. In the end, Pakatan garnered fewer Malay votes than in the 2008 general election, although Nizar still managed to win the seat.
Nizar pointed out that the BN's strategy was to make the Malays believe that Umno would take care of the Malays, "therefore if Umno is ruined, your future is also ruined. So PAS, PKR and DAP will ruin your future."
There is no doubt that the support of the Malays in Perak is crucial to the Pakatan. Of the 59 state seats in 2008, there are 19 seats with more than 70% Malays and 12 seats with more than 70% Chinese.
The rest of the 28 seats are mixed seats. Among them, 17 seats have 50-70% Malay voters.
It is worth noting that in the 2008 general election, the 15 seats that were won by slim majorities consisted of more than 60% Malays. Of these, nine seats were won by BN and 6 seats by PR. These are the seats that would decide the fate of both coalitions.
Pakatan's rural challenge
As young voters are said to hold the key to the outcome of the next general election, understanding their views will be crucial for the parties to plan their polls strategy.
For Mohd Faiz Mohd Arshad, 26, a recent graduate, it is important for the Pakatan to explain the takeover issue to the electorate in the rural areas, because the incident involves complicated constitutional matters and the law.
Mohd Faiz, who is from Kampar, pointed out that many people may not feel strongly about the takeover crisis now as many people, especially those in the rural areas, do not understand the issue clearly.
"The incident involves law and many people don't really understand the real issue," he said.
During Nizar's legal challenge against Zambry, the main questions argued in the court were whether the Perak Sultan could order the menteri besar to resign and whether the loss of confidence in a menteri besar could be determined outside of the state assembly.
Mohd Faiz, who faced a charge of participating in the Kuala Kangsar gathering, pointed out that the incident had faded from people's memories because the media did not dwell on the issue. He said that the Pakatan should revive the issue to refresh the people's memories.
Political observer Chong also pointed out that although the BN could retain its Malay base in the remote rural areas, he believed that the younger generation is more inclined towards democratic change.
He opined that for the past one or two years, the growth of popular movements in the Arab countries had sparked an urge for democracy and change.
"They felt that there is a need for a regime change, and this has affected the Chinese and younger Malays," he said. This was his reading after talking to some younger Malays near the Ipoh area.
As both Umno and PAS had their bases in the Malay areas, the middle ground would decide the winning party, he said.
It is a matter of months before a definite answer will emerge to the question of whether the Pakatan's interrupted rule will be restored by the winds of change.
"There must be a process and this process is already taking place."
On Perkasa president Ibrahim Ali's (right) urging the 
