Currently just relying on the Malay and Chinese support is not going to be enough either. PR will still require the support of the Indian voters at levels similar to which it had in the 2008 GE. The 99.5% geographical distribution of Indian voters in the bread and butter states of Peninsular Malaysia, gives it added strength in the collective voting strength in the next General Election. Paraman Subramaniam
165 out of the 222 Parliamentary seats in Malaysia lie in Peninsular Malaysia. This translates to 75% of all seats. Focusing valuable resources and campaign time on Sabah and Sarawak may be necessary but it cannot be done at the expense of Peninsular Malaysia. First of all Sarawak state elections is already over. PR’s influence on East Malaysia is not as strong as it is on Peninsular Malaysia. The city/town seats are winnable but the interiors are impenetrable, not just logistically but also due to poor Internet/alternative media coverage. Polling agents and counting agents from PR in these areas are also minimal. The elections in these areas are literally at the mercy of the heavyweight BN machinery on elections day. The internal politics within these states are complicated and they do view politicians from Peninsular Malaysia with suspicion.
The 9 states in Peninsular Malaysia (Kedah, Penang, Perak, Selangor, W.P, N.S, Malacca, Johor and Pahang) contain 140 Parliamentary seats which is 85% of all Parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia. In fact these states in total consist of almost 2/3rd of all Parliamentary seats in Malaysia hence the term “bread and butter states” is best applicable. A strong showing of PR in these bread and butter states will draw all victors/political parties post GE like a magnet towards PR, especially those from East Malaysia. It is as simple as that. Moreover PR’s potential nadir strength also lies in these bread and butter states.
99.5% of the more than 950k Indian voters reside in these states (as of June 30, 2012). Indians average around 7% of total voters in Malaysia but in these bread and butter states the Indians average 10% in number as far as voters are concerned. There are MORE than 70 Parliamentary (50%) constituencies in these ‘bread and butter states’ that have Indian voter strength of greater than 10%. Out of these there are 11 Parliamentary seats that have more than 20% Indian voter
The table below is data obtained up to Dec 31, 2011
Selangor new voters from 2008 up to Dec 31 2011, show that almost 50k new Indians voters have registered to vote. This accounts to almost half of the new Chinese voters and also almost 1/3 of new Malay voters in Selangor. 25% of the 200k new Indian voters are concentrated in Selangor.
Remarkably Indians have also registered the highest percentage rise per race in new voter registration since 2008 in all the bread and butter states. Selangor registering a 22.40% rise with Perak and NS recording 16.03% and 16.82% rise respectively since 2008. Malacca has recorded a 45.91% increase in new Indian voters. For comparison sake Selangor only registered a 5-6% rise in new Indian voter registration during the period between 2004 and 2007.
It is apparent that there has been a lot of new Indian voter awareness and enlightenment of their political plight and strength. This spike in new Indian voter registration can be attributed to Hindraf’s emergence as the front leader in the Malaysian Indian political landscape and dynamics since 2007.
The 15/38 Hindraf project appears to have also contributed to this rise in new Indian voter registration. Hindraf has paid paramount importance in voter registration as well as responsibility as a voter to the Indian community as a means to increase its political weight in the arena of Malaysian politics so that political solutions of the marginalized Indians problems can be expedited.
BN has for decades ignored these problems and allowed the marginalized Indians issues now to tilt towards critical point. PR’s emphasis on Indian representatives as versus Indian representation has not given these critical issues its due importance. For these reasons Hindraf has filled this vacuum of Indian leadership with their selfless sacrifices.
PR feels that it could be able to win comfortably in the next GE with just relying on predominantly strong Malay and Chinese support. However there have been accusations and suspicions that BN is aiming to sabotage this by the introduction and injection of phantom/foreign voters together with dubious voters into the Electoral roll.
Looking at the alarming rise and exponential growth in new voters, especially the Bumiputra voters in numbers, particularly in key constituencies that appear to be too close to call, these suspicions may have some justification. The exponential growth of new voters since 2008 is 1 : 1.8 : 5.32 : 6.5 : 8.39 is staggering! (N/p 2012 data is only up to June 30th 2012 and has been estimated to at least double 651,006 to give a 8.39% increase)
It is interesting to note that in 2008 and 2009, PR was leading BN in registering new voters. In 2010 BN had caught up with PR in registering new voters and subsequently has overtaken PR in 2011 and 2012. This also reflects in the abnormal spike in new voters from 2010 onwards.
It has been common knowledge that BN’s primary aim in the next GE is to secure a 2/3rd majority in Parliament and to win back the rich state of Selangor. BN is also feverishly working behind the scenes to prove that the outcome of the results in the next GE will show that PR has lost a big majority of the Malay support as this will be tantamount to pulling the life support system of the PR coalition. It is also rumored that Dr Mahathir’s expertise is being sought and is still influential behind the scenes as well as calling the shots in the BN’s election machinery.
Dr Mahathir has in the past been accused to have orchestrated Sabah’s ‘Project M’ where thousands of Filipino Muslims were given Malaysian citizenship’s so that they could vote in favour of UMNO and dilute the predominantly Christian majority voters influence in the state of Sabah. During Dr Mahathir’s era also, hundreds of thousands of Malaysian born Indians were denied their citizenship’s in Malaysia rendering them stateless and having no voting rights at all. In the 1999 hotly contested GE, Dr Mahathir’s plan of calling the GE early had nullified Anwar Ibrahim’s supporters numbering 650k who had newly registered to vote, disqualifying them to vote on a technicality of not registering 6 months before the GE.
Reflecting on all these factors there appears to show a certain pattern developing in the current period leading to the next GE.
1) Dr Mahathir’s involvement.
2) Abnormal spike in new voters especially Bumiputra voters in constituencies that are too close to call.
3) Allegations of foreigners are being made voters.
4) The potential of at least another 650k new dubious registered voters being added into the Electoral roll between the period July 1st to Dec 31st 2012, which will be too late for PR to check. This will deliver the technical knockout blow to PR’s chances of taking over Putrajaya.
It must be noted that phantom/foreign voters are suspected to have been added into the Malay category of the Electoral roll as this will dilute the PR’s Malay voters. Pekan (Najib) has had a 26.39% rise and Sembrong (Hishamudin) a whopping 34.86% rise in new Malay voters.
DSAI himself appears to be repeating the same mistake of his 1998/1999 Reformasi movement where he then mainly focused on the Malay supporters which proved on the hindsight to be insufficient for him to win. Currently just relying on the Malay and Chinese support is not going to be enough either. PR will still require the support of the Indian voters at levels similar to which it had in the 2008 GE. The 99.5% geographical distribution of Indian voters in the bread and butter states of Peninsular Malaysia, gives it added strength in the collective voting strength in the next General Election. Currently there are no Indian leaders in this country who can muster that kind of overwhelming Indian support towards PR other than HINDRAF. HINDRAF can not only rally the Indian support but more importantly make them to turn up to vote on elections day. Delaying attempts to forge a coalition and corporation with the well oiled election machinery of HINDRAF is tantamount to shooting PR’s own two feet.
MIC claims to have almost half of the Indian voters (400k) secured (Malay Mail 15/10/12). PR is estimated to command anywhere between 30-50% of the Indian voters support. However there appears to be a significant difference in the value of both these opposing camps Indian support. MIC Indian voters support is traditionally in rural areas and in the outskirts of cities where else PR’s Indian support is in the cities. PR is expected to face stiff opposition in the rural areas and outskirts of cities and as such their lack in Indian support in these areas will be costly.
PR will require the SYNERGY of all the 3 major races in one direction against BN to topple the 55 year regime.
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Comments (16)
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written by dr morsi, January 06, 2013 22:49:28
written by dr morsi, January 06, 2013 22:49:28
Yes, Umno will resort to all forms of bribe. Don't fall into this
trap. Be strong. From toddy they will upgraded it to Anchor Beer or
Guiness Stout. They won't give the poor Indians Scotch Whiskey.... it's
to expensive. If you cannot resist then there is no choice. But still,
do not vote for Umno or BN. Try Pakatan at the federal level this time.
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written by Eskay Lim, January 06, 2013 22:35:37
written by Eskay Lim, January 06, 2013 22:35:37
Yeah, let's do the Indians a great favour. Get all the Indians to
migrate, move to Perlis and N. Sembilan so that the seven ethnic Indian
parties can challenge each other for the Indian votes. At last, an
Indian party would reign supreme in the two states resulting in two
Indians being appointed as their Menteris Besar. Wouldn't that be way
better than the only Chinese Chief Minister in Malaysia?..
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written by helust, January 06, 2013 21:33:38
written by helust, January 06, 2013 21:33:38
lets all do the indians a great favor. lets force them to be united.
we can do this by rejecting their membership and refusing to woo them.
then they will have to go running ti mic. atleast they will all be
contained within one party. i say dont bother with the indians. let them
believe that they are king makers.
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written by Concerned, January 06, 2013 18:38:43
written by Concerned, January 06, 2013 18:38:43
Whatever, Indians have to take their chances with PR. Everyone need to
realise that regime change is of paramount importance. Under the new
gov we may expect some changes in the way the country is administered.
Racist policies may be amended and need based policies may be
introduced.
But the most important thing that happens following a regime change is that the rakyat send a strong message to aspiring political parties. The message is that no party that is corrupt and uses dubious means to stay in power will be supported by the people. This message will send the shivers to them and be a strong deterent to corruption in the new gov.
For the past 55 years various tactics like fear and suspicion among races, manipulation of the electoral system and so on have been used successfully to remain in power. The rakyat must wake up and show that they cannot be taken for a ride forever.
But the most important thing that happens following a regime change is that the rakyat send a strong message to aspiring political parties. The message is that no party that is corrupt and uses dubious means to stay in power will be supported by the people. This message will send the shivers to them and be a strong deterent to corruption in the new gov.
For the past 55 years various tactics like fear and suspicion among races, manipulation of the electoral system and so on have been used successfully to remain in power. The rakyat must wake up and show that they cannot be taken for a ride forever.
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written by Biawak Masak Kari, January 06, 2013 18:06:35
written by Biawak Masak Kari, January 06, 2013 18:06:35
The Indians will stay away from voting.. Fuck BN and PR!!
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written by Gilagila, January 06, 2013 16:37:55
written by Gilagila, January 06, 2013 16:37:55
Yes, be contented with crumbs, you pitiful Indians, Ibans & Kadazans.
This is especially for you, Indians. Get the full compensation from the RM207 billion that was the
sweat and blood money your forefathers earned from the Japanese. Get it, and need no crumbs no more!
This is especially for you, Indians. Get the full compensation from the RM207 billion that was the
sweat and blood money your forefathers earned from the Japanese. Get it, and need no crumbs no more!
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written by temenggong, January 06, 2013 15:36:51
written by temenggong, January 06, 2013 15:36:51
BN has lost the Indian votes. The first week of 2013 has passed and PR
has not signed the Hindraf memorandum. They have again misled the
Indians. Pakatan has lost the Indian votes.
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written by Whale, January 06, 2013 15:03:37
written by Whale, January 06, 2013 15:03:37
Geee! with over 300 thousand indian living in this country are without
birth cert and identity card the childrens can't enter school the
adults can't get permanent employed.
How are the indians gonna be King Maker, editor ?
How are the indians gonna be King Maker, editor ?
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written by dr morsi, January 06, 2013 14:13:31
written by dr morsi, January 06, 2013 14:13:31
Indians have been cheated by Umno for the past 55 years. And now they
should bank on Pakatan Rakyat. Indians are generally happy in Selangor
and Penang now. With Pakatan Rakyat coming to power at the national
level the POOR Indians will find some comfort in this country. Indians
should NEVER EVER trust BN or Umno amymore. We now have a two-party
system. Why worry?
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written by helust, January 06, 2013 13:06:02
written by helust, January 06, 2013 13:06:02
the Indians they are special, they are F*** king makers. They deserve to perish from this land.
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written by Nawi, January 06, 2013 11:57:21
written by Nawi, January 06, 2013 11:57:21
The data look good alright, but beside MIC, there are many other
Indian based parties. MIC already take 30% of the Indian votes to BN.
Jadi janganlah shiouk sendiri; Indians are not the kingmakers. However,
the East Malaysians are kingmakers if the small parties could pool
together and not join the BN.
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written by mutu, January 06, 2013 11:33:32
written by mutu, January 06, 2013 11:33:32
The Indians should stop here and now playing the king maker and start
translating it to reasonable benefit to the community.Otherwise its all
talk and nothing more than that.The chinese know how to take the Indians
for a ride and they have done it so often they can now claim to be the
masters of manipulating the Indians to suit their own needs.
Do not worry about the parties,they are all about the same.If we can live with that dreadful MIC for 55 years then we can live with any party.We must choose one be it BN or PR that can honestly cater for the needs of the Indians especially those in the lower social order. If we fail we alone are to be blamed.I trust the PM and his intention to lift the Indians up but i will never trust the evil MIC who are even now hell bent on deceiving and hoodwinking the Indians.All they are doing is playing with emotional blackmail of the Indians and this must stop if we are going to make any head way in our journey.If the PM is serious about helping the Indians he must first get rid of that evil MIC now and head it himself if that is possible.We cannot accept MIC anymore,period.
We must critically examine the choice offered by the PM.We must ensure it is reaching the target group and not to MIC and its cronies.Incidentally this was the approach the American ethnic community worked out with The democrat and today they are still in power.
Do not worry about the parties,they are all about the same.If we can live with that dreadful MIC for 55 years then we can live with any party.We must choose one be it BN or PR that can honestly cater for the needs of the Indians especially those in the lower social order. If we fail we alone are to be blamed.I trust the PM and his intention to lift the Indians up but i will never trust the evil MIC who are even now hell bent on deceiving and hoodwinking the Indians.All they are doing is playing with emotional blackmail of the Indians and this must stop if we are going to make any head way in our journey.If the PM is serious about helping the Indians he must first get rid of that evil MIC now and head it himself if that is possible.We cannot accept MIC anymore,period.
We must critically examine the choice offered by the PM.We must ensure it is reaching the target group and not to MIC and its cronies.Incidentally this was the approach the American ethnic community worked out with The democrat and today they are still in power.
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written by mana boleh, January 06, 2013 11:07:12
written by mana boleh, January 06, 2013 11:07:12
Paraman Subramaniam SO another Indian has boldly claim that the
Indians in Malaysia are vital to the election outcome The Indians are
the main force in 2008 Tsunami, etc, So vital are the Malaysian Indians,
is it really? UMNO has for the past 5 decades have been treating them
as fifth-class citizens and as mainly as plantation workers with hardly
any government aids. Come election time, Umno would throw a few scraps
of leftovers to these Malaysian Indians, and these "VITAL" indians would
treat UMNO as their SAVIOUR.
These scenario has been repeatedly being used by UMNO, and yet most of these Indians continue to vote for UMNO. So what do call this behaviour of these Malaysian Indians?
These scenario has been repeatedly being used by UMNO, and yet most of these Indians continue to vote for UMNO. So what do call this behaviour of these Malaysian Indians?
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written by Amaranathan, January 06, 2013 10:52:13
written by Amaranathan, January 06, 2013 10:52:13
Hope the the politicos are taking note of this article. You ignore the Indian vote at your own peril.
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