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Wednesday 28 April 2010

Hulu Selangor

The Malay nationalist rhetoric also undermines the PM's much promoted 1Malaysia slogan. As such, Najib's own reform agenda may well be doomed. We could be presented with a situation in which Najib secures political power but is prevented from reforming and changing Umno. Worrying prospect, ya.

By KARIM RASLAN/MySinchew

The Hulu Selangor (or “HS”) by-election is an important victory for Prime Minister Najib Razak and the Barisan Nasional. Congratulations are due.

Of course, the BN enjoys in-built advantages, especially in terms of financial resources and throughout the by-election it was impossible to forget this stark reality as millions of Ringgit were dangled before voters.

I visited the constituency twice last week, stopping at various Barisan and Pakatan ceramahs. Whilst I was impressed by the “semangat” of the opposition campaigners it was clear that they were facing difficulties.

Most importantly, I felt the Indian community was experiencing a change of heart. In 2008, with temple demolitions, body-snatchings and Hindraf dominating the headlines, their frustration and anger was palpable. However, their passions are cooling, in HS at least.

While Samy Vellu is still very unpopular, the community is clearly moving back into Barisan's embrace.

I experienced this shift first-hand when I met some MIC supporters at Batang Kali. First off, I was struck by the way their MIC tent was boldly sited close to a major Pakatan rallying point in Batang Kali.

Despite the many hundreds of PAS supporters walking by, the men held their ground confidently. Two or three years ago they would have been too angry (and even ashamed) to be associated with the MIC.

Later, when I sat down and chatted with the guys it was clear that they were willing to accept Najib Razak's placatory words at face value. In short: they wanted to trust his leadership.

Moreover they saw P. Kamalanathan's election as a key test of their own commitment to Najib. They also felt that they had to secure the MIC candidate's victory in order to ensure a pro-establishment Indian presence in Parliament.

If this is trend is repeated across the country, PR's victory in 2008 will be difficult to replicate.

Indeed, I can still remember interviewing the Premier during the 2008 polls. At the time we discussed the Indian community's alienation. Najib knew even then he had to win them back and he's been targeting their votes ever since.

However, the Barisan is still weakened. The recent Indian swing to the ruling coalition will count for nothing if the internal leadership issues within the MIC are not resolved soon.

The same goes for the larger problems of the community’s socio-political and economic alienation. Fail to deliver and they’ll head back to Pakatan.

Najib needs to ensure the entire Barisan pulls its weight.

On that score, the BN component parties - (particularly the MCA) are mere shadows. Umno continues to dominate the alliance totally and the Chinese community feels very uncomfortable with this situation.

This fact was very clear at the Barisan rally I observed. This was a high-profile event with the PM and the stage was filled with senior BN leaders.

It was an impressive crowd - from the DPM Muhyiddin to Shafie Apdal, Zahid Hamidi, Shahrizat Jalil and countless others. However, there wasn't a single MCA or Gerakan leader present and Ong Tee Keat only arrived after the speeches.

The absence of any Chinese faces was very obvious. The community in HS voted for Pakatan solidly, a sign that Barisan will have to work harder and smarter.

The by-election also proves that the single-minded focus on promoting Malay rights is a vote-winner with the Malay heartlands. This is worrying.

Umno will certainly continue in this direction and Perkasa's position will become stronger.

However, we must ask if the obsession with Malay rights is good for Malaysia's future?

Our economy is stalling. We are desperately in need of more FDI and investors (including local businessmen), are very negative towards Perkasa's goals.

The Malay nationalist rhetoric also undermines the PM's much promoted 1Malaysia slogan. As such, Najib's own reform agenda may well be doomed. We could be presented with a situation in which Najib secures political power but is prevented from reforming and changing Umno. Worrying prospect, ya.

The Pakatan Rakyat, on the other hand has had a nightmare year. The defections and in-fighting have reduced support for the opposition alliance drastically.

Anwar Ibrahim’s focus on Apco has failed to capture the public imagination. Voters need something more real and tangible.

Still, Malaysia requires a strong opposition. We need PAS and the DAP to deepen ties as PKR consolidates.

As for Zaid ibrahim? Well, he fought a good fight and lost. He must persevere. Pakatan Rakyat needs him. Moreover, he must build his relations with PAS in particular. It appeared as if Zaid only had their qualified support. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to write him off.

All in all, it’s been a very exciting by-election. I’ve followed it on Twitter and on the ground via the usual ceramahs. Both experiences are unique and informative.

Many claim that “Twitterjaya” is unrepresentative of reality. At least one gets information in real-time there.

We can only speculate on how such technology will affect the next by-election, over in Sibu. Things can only get more exciting from hereon.

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