Hindraf endorsed the PR opposition two years ago in the general elections, expecting a change in policy on the problems and issues of the Indian poor that had resulted in their marginalization. PR won big on that endorsement but the policy changes never materialized. They, instead continue to play the same game as UMNO, get the votes with promises and then forget completely about these promises while creating perceptions and illusions to deceive the people and maintain the status quo. Get by till the next elections.
Hindraf realized from this experience that it is not good enough to remain just an NGO as it has only served to create awareness and build up expectations without the means of actually delivering on the expectations of the Indian poor. So the political party HRP has been created, as the vehicle for this delivery.
The Indian votes will not be simply given away. HRP will become the leader of the Indian poor to guide them to vote to win true representation in the halls of power, without having to depend on intrinsically undependable other parties. This is the delivery mechanism conceived in the creation of HRP.
Given this it behooves HRP to decide on the best possible position for the Indian poor vis-à-vis their votes at every by-election and every general election and swing the Indian votes appropriately. The following is my analysis and recommendations to HRP in the upcoming Hulu Selangor
by-election for the position that best fits their purpose.
Just focusing on the Indian votes, my conclusion in PART ONE of this article was that the Indian votes will swing away from PR anyway, in this by-election, without any effective countermoves by PR. The Indian vote swing in my opinion is going to be the bigger of the two possible swings away from PR - Malay votes and Indian votes swing, and the Indian votes will therefore be the decider in this by-election. The Chinese votes are solidly anti-establishment and will remain behind PR.
There are no major new Malay issues in Hulu Selangor which can cause a major shift in the Malay electorate voting pattern. UMNO will play its normal game. So even if that causes some swing it will likely be in the region of a few percentage points. PR for its part,will play up the injustice issue against Anwar in the Sodomoy II trial. A swing of 3% either way ( at this point it is not certain that it will swing away from PR, but that is one very likely scenario) means a 1.6% swing in the final tally. Compare this with what is a highly probable scenario as far as the Indian votes are concerned - the swing in the Indian voters can be expected to be significant and about 10% to 30% clearly away from PR.
If HRP contests in this by-elections it will likely capture a majority of that swing of the Indian votes. Of course, one can challenge that, as there is no precedent yet of this capacity of HRP. In any case HRP will take a substantial number of Indian votes away from both BN and PR but more from PR than from BN and the fight will then move to the Malay votes. BN clearly has the advantage here. So HRP’s contesting will have the default effect of delivering BN the advantage.
If HRP does not contest, these swing votes will obviously go to BN. This 10-30% swing will translate to about 2% to 6% in the final tally. Let us assume the better case and less likely scenario for PR with the Malay votes where PR does gain more Malay votes, that will be an increase of about 1.6% favourable versus a 2-6% unfavourable swing away of the Indian votes. Net result is still a BN win.
In both the above scenarios PR stands to lose. The only way for PR not to lose the Indian votes will be to gain a strong endorsement from HRP/Hindraf. Now, if HRP/Hindraf does this, it will mean giving advantage to PR. Giving advantage to PR does not help with HRP’s agenda as it stands now, as the policies of the PR governments and the BN government are not really very different from the Indian poor standpoint.
HRP therefore should take a completely neutral stand – by not giving advantage to either side. Let them battle it out on their own strengths and whatever the Indian votes they can pick up let them do it on their own strengths.
As much as HRP is totally opposed to UMNO/BN it cannot give PR carte blanch advantage without a reason. That reason cannot be just to eliminate UMNO. PR must offer clear policy change in exchange for any endorsement before HRP considers giving any advantage to PR.
So, HRP should not endorse PR overtly or BN by default until it knows that it is going to make a difference to the problems of the Indian poor. In this elections it is too late for any such policy change either by BN or PR– so plainly HRP should stay clear out of this election and endorse neither party overtly or otherwise.
The lesson from all this is that HRP is giving new awareness to the Indian poor in this country that they should use their only remaining equal right – that of the vote, wisely, to get what is due to them.
In summary my recommendation is that the best position for HRP in the Hulu Selangor by-elections is to remain totally neutral and continue to educate and organize the Indian poor and continue to build on the Political Empowerment Strategy enunciated by Uthayakumar. That is surely the way forward for the Indian poor.
Subramaniam Bharathy
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