Two by-elections and the economy

FEB 15 – The Chinese New Year of 2009 marking the beginning of the Ox year is filled with both economic and political challenges.

The possible recession in Malaysia and the slowdown in the global economy has dampened the festive mood.

Looking at the political situation, it did not augur well for the rakyat in Perak where they had a sudden change of government.

There has been much news, comments, write-up, analysis and debate about the change in state government in Perak. Some condemn BN, some say PR deserve to get a taste of their own medicine.

Nevertheless, what is clear is that after 308, the public had high expectations of PR and the emergence of a two-party system in Malaysia was much hyped, celebrated and welcome by a lot of Malaysians.

As a result, the all-powerful BN is now portrayed as the underdog bruised after sustaining more injuries due to its defeat in the by-election in Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu.

Nevertheless, the change in government through wakil rakyat hopping to and from whichever side is not something we ought to be proud of because when the rakyat votes, it is because of the candidate as well as the party they represent.

Hence, the frustration by the rakyat is clearly understood as they voted for PR to be the ruling party of the Perak state, but due to several of their representatives morphing into independent assemblymen, the PR government fell and the BN coalition took charge.

In the short term, it would seem BN have won but in the long run it may yet backfire.

What puzzled me, though, was why did the Umno assemblymen jumped to PR and then back? Was it a scheme to confirm PR is acceptable to the idea of party-hopping so that if any of PR members were to crossover to BN, PR can't argue that is it unconstitutional or unethical?

When the Umno assemblyman jumped, he was welcome with open arms followed by a press conference to trumpet that more BN wakil rakyat will hop over.

But, as we all know now, that did not happen. But the reverse did.

It is true that Anwar mooted and publicise party hopping and he was a strong advocate of gaining control through party hopping but never in his wildest dream would he have expected that when you play with fire and if the wind direction changes you will also burn your hands.

What should have been done is to convene an emergency sitting and to pass a vote of no-confidence against the PR government.

By establishing a new government through the support of independent wakil rakyat, it would make BN vulnerable to attacks and threats. The ability for BN to hold Perak depends on three independent assemblymen similar to an egg balancing on the buffalo horns. They can defect just as easily defect backwards.

PR can also go to town on the issue that the two PKR wakil rakyat who are on trial for corruption have defected to avoid being prosecuted and sentenced. Thus, it looks plausible that these two were set up in order to force them to defect.

If they are later acquitted, it would undermine public confidence in the courts and lead the public to believe that all this was a scheme hatched from the start by BN to undemocratically take back Perak and deny the voters their rights.

But if the two wakil rakyat are found guilty, by-elections would be held again to determine who would form the state government Perak.

Constant changing of government ultimately is detrimental to the rakyat as stability and consistency of policies are not attainable and cannot be established. This invariably leads to drop in both foreign and local investors due to uncertainty.

The blame cannot solely be shouldered by BN. They always say that when you have a common enemy you will be able to unite with unlikely partners and disregard the differences to ensure the enemy is defeated.

When PR became the ruling coalition in Perak state, the enemies were no longer in sight and hence infighting and dissatisfaction started to surface to the extent that it caused a split leading to the downfall of the Perak state government.

On the other hand, PR should evaluate its coalition and establish proper channels of communication to avoid further defection and wakil rakyat resigning.

An ultimatum to a wakil rakyat that he/she is regarded as having resigned from his/her seat if he/she cannot be contacted in 24 hours will not placate any dissatisfaction but fuel it further.

In fact, having undated pre-signed letters of resignation would indicate that the leadership harbours no trust and is doubtful of its member's loyalty and sincerity. What a way to start building a relationship of trust and loyalty, similar to having a pre-nuptial agreement.

I guess it is always easy to give opinion and criticise after the event has happened and to write comments from the comfort of our desk. I believe leadership is about taking charge and making the decision.

Like they always say, whether a decision made is good or bad it is still a decision. A decision is made based on the available information at that moment.

What is important now is how we move forward. As wakil rakyat, regardless of allegiance to PR or BN, our main important aim is to serve the people and to ensure development of the constituency and prosperity of the constituency.

A decision has been made and taken by both leadership on either side.

BN sought and obtained the Sultan's blessing and subsequently took control over Perak while PR decided to proceed with a lawsuit.

Coincidentally, due to unforeseen circumstances, two by-elections are scheduled to be held, in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau, on 7 April 2009.

The results will surely be widely interpreted and analysed.

The Bukit Gantang MP seat will be used a gauge to see if the rakyat is acceptable to what have transpired for past few weeks in Perak. If a defeat is dealt to BN it might signify that the rakyat is punishing BN for taking over the state government due to the defections of the PR state assemblymen or that the rakyat is more confident and pleased with the progress of PR government.

Meanwhile the Bukit Selambau by election would be useful as a benchmark on the rakyat sentiments and support after the 308 elections. The mixture of Malay (50 per cent), Indian (29 per cent) and Chinese (20 per cent) would provide an indication on whether the anti-BN sentiment has subsided.

With all the by-elections and the constant politicking between BN and PR, there is lack of focus by the political leaders in resolving the problems of languishing economy as seen by the drop in the industrial production index approx 16 per cent in December 2008, drop in exports by 18 per cent compared to last year and a drop in international reserves held by Bank Negara from US$125 billion to US$91.3 billion coupled with a drop in revenue from commodities and oil and gas.

Thus it is good that both by election nomination and polling day are done on a similar date.

Multiple surveys have indicated that the rakyat is mainly concerned with economic issues and political stability. A recent survey by the Merdeka survey confirms this with 43 per cent of the people based on their sample being worried about unfavourable economic condition, inflation and cost of living.

Hence I believe strongly that whether BN survives the onslaught by the opposition depends on how well the crisis – in terms of unemployment, slowdown in the economy and also inflation – is handled. It is bread-and-butter issues that concern the rakyat.

In Iceland, the government was overthrown due to their inability to handle the financial market meltdown while in Thailand no stimulus package can be carried out due to political instability marred by demonstration.

Of course transparency and the eradication of corruption are equally important to ensure resources are efficiently channelled towards activities that can contribute to the economy.