OCT 1 - The Business Monitor International views that Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's fragile grip on power continues to slip further from his grasp as pressure continues to mount from both a rejuvenated opposition and from within his own government.
However, with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim proving a more popular alternative to Abdullah's chosen successor, it appears that even the departure of the prime minister is unlikely to provide the necessary boost required to keep the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition in power.
Less than two weeks after the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) announced its withdrawal from Malaysia's ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, the predominantly ethnic Chinese Gerakan party has now also threatened to leave Abdullah's beleaguered government. The rift between Gerakan and the BN has arisen largely due to the government's approach to tackling sensitive racial issues within the country, with Abdullah's liberal use of the controversial Internal Security Act receiving particularly fierce criticism.
Indeed, it is not just Gerakan that has voiced its concerns over the issue. A number of cabinet members have openly criticised the arrests of an opposition politician, a journalist and a prominent blogger on Sept 12 under the Internal Security Act, with one - de facto Law Minister Zaid Ibrahim - actually tendering his resignation in protest at the controversial move.
Meanwhile, a recent poll by Merdeka Centre has revealed that the public share a similar view on the subject, with 70% of respondents disagreeing that it is "necessary to detain people without trial to safeguard national security".
Gerakan secretary general Chia Kwang Chye has announced that party officials are likely to discuss the possibility of leaving the coalition at their annual congress on Oct 11, but party vice-president Teng Hock Nan has suggested that more than half of its members want the party to follow the SAPP's lead and terminate its association with Abdullah's Barisan Nasional coalition.
While such a move may not make any significant dent in the coalition's majority - the party's withdrawal would remove only two lawmakers from the coalition, thereby reducing the coalition's majority to 54 - it would nonetheless make a strong symbolic statement, and serve to further undermine the beleaguered premier - much in a similar way the SAPP's departure did (the SAPP also only had two representatives in the lower house of parliament).
However, how much of an impact these fringe parties actually have will largely depend upon whether they opt to join the opposing Pakatan Rakyat coalition.
As things stand, Teng has said that Gerakan has no immediate plans to join the Pakatan Rakyat, and SAPP president Yong Teck Lee has said that his party will remain independent. However, neither have ruled out the possibility of joining the resurgent opposition.
We highlight that once again, while such a move may not prove numerically significant, it would provide a sizeable - and visible - boost to opposition leader Anwar's designs on the premiership. Anwar has repeatedly stated that he has secured the loyalty of the 30 MPs needed to gain a majority in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat (House of Representatives), but has declined to provide any names of politicians willing to defect - saying that it would put the lawmakers at risk - and Abdullah is calling the challenge a bluff.
A public show of support from the SAPP and/or Gerakan would therefore significantly enhance Anwar's claims that he has enough support to topple Abdullah.
At the same time that growing internal divisions within Abdullah's camp are continuing to put him under increasing pressure, the Malaysian premier is also having to fend off an increasingly credible challenge from his opposite number, who continues to make impressive progress towards fulfilling his goal of replacing him. A recent Merdeka Centre poll has revealed that 40% of respondents believed that Anwar would make the better prime minister - just 3 percentage points behind Abdullah and 6 percentage points above Abdullah's chosen successor Najib Razak.
This bodes ill for the Barisan Nasional's prospects going forward, as it is becoming increasingly likely that Najib will soon replace Abdullah as United Malays National Organisation (Umno) leader - and consequently as prime minister.
Having previously stated his intentions to hand over power to his deputy in 2010, Abdullah has now offered to stand down early in order to avoid a leadership challenge. Umno has agreed to postpone elections for its leadership from December, 2008, to March, 2009, thus buying
Abdullah a little more time in the hot seat, but nonetheless, it appears that come March next year, Malaysia will have a new leader.And with confidence in Najib apparently rather thin on the ground, it may not be an Umno candidate. - Business Monitor International
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