It depends on how well it has learnt its lessons from recent by-elections
PAS’s campaign strategy in Merlimau will tell us whether it has learnt any lesson from the losses it suffered in the last three by-elections it contested. It lost in Bagan Pinang in 2009, in Galas in 2010 and in Tenang last month.
Unlike Bagan Pinang and Tenang, Galas was a PAS seat in a PAS-controlled state and the party was confident of retaining it when the by-election was declared. Ironically, its defeat there was the most acceptable of the three losses.
It is hard to think of any candidate who could have won against the charm of Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who led the Barisan Nasional campaign there. Appointing him as BN election director was one of the most inspired acts that Umno has done in recent years.
The Bagan Pinang loss was the result of PAS’ overconfidence. It was sure that it could snatch the seat from BN because Umno’s candidate, Mohamad Isa Abdul Samad, had the taint of money politics on him. (In 2005, Umno’s disciplinary board found him guilty of buying votes in party elections.)
Instead, Umno’s winning margin was wider than the one in March 2008.
In Tenang, PAS went in knowing that it would lose. All it wanted was to boost opposition morale by reducing Umno’s majority. It didn’t make this intention public, but it was not a secret to party workers.
Well before the nomination of candidates for the Bagan Pinang by-election, PAS leaders told their colleagues in PKR and DAP not to make too much noise about Isa’s money politics. The idea was to trap BN into fielding him as its candidate so that the taint could be used as campaign ammunition.
Apparently, the PAS leadership was not aware that Isa was such a godfather to people in the Bagan Pinang area that they would not give two hoots to whether he had been found guilty of anything.
Not even the Negeri Sembilan PAS leaders seemed to know about Isa’s immense popularity. Neither did they do their homework when it came to choosing their candidate for the by-election.
The choice—Zulkefly Mohamed Omar—was an unknown in Bagan Pinang although he was PAS commissioner for Negeri Sembilan. Teluk Kemang PAS chief Ramli Ismail would have been a much better candidate. He enjoys some popularity there.
Strangest of all was the apparent reversal of the initial strategy to harp on Isa’s money politics. Instead, PAS campaigners went for petty local issues like clogged drains, filthy food stalls, and even an uncompleted bus stop.
Some PAS stalwarts have alleged sabotage by the group supporting the idea of cooperation with Umno in a unity government. They say it was the unity-government faction that plotted the strategy to draw Isa into the contest because it wanted to break Pakatan Rakyat’s winning streak.
They point out that the backbone figures of that faction were hardly seen during the campaign for Bagan Pinang.
Red tape
Other critics speak of too much red tape in PAS’ campaign organisation. PKR leaders especially suffered from this. Several of them could not give last minute ceramahs because the PAS information department stuck rigidly to its requirement of at least a day’s notice. However, this rule was relaxed for PAS leaders.
That was why Nurul Izzah Anwar, for instance, could not speak at a function in Batu 8, Telok Kemang. The local PKR leader who arranged for Nurul Izzah’s ceramah was livid.
“Short notice should not be a big deal,” he said. “It’s fine if the speaker is unknown, but Nurul Izzah is popular and a crowd puller.
“I have done my best to help PAS; if this is the type of bureaucracy they practice, then I have no comment.”
A senior PKR leader from Malacca said the scenario in Tenang was similar.
“There were cases in which Chinese PKR leaders were not allowed to deliver ceramahs in Malay majority areas,” he said.
It is not known whether PAS’ post-mortem of its Tenang defeat considered the effectiveness of such restrictions on the PKR machinery. Certainly, PKR would want it to re-consider the strategy as the Merlimau by-election looms.
Tenang has made it obvious that the so-called soft approach in wooing Malay voters to PAS does not work in Umno strongholds.
PAS should realise by now that although it has some support from rural and conservative Malays, urban Malays who are disillusioned with Umno are likely to be more comfortable with PKR than PAS. This is mainly because of the large presence of former Umno leaders and supporters in PKR.
The recent defeats should force PAS to rethink its strategy in trying to win more Malay support. After all, it was a change of strategy and rhetoric that has resulted in its winning over some Chinese and Indians.
Above all, it must be seen to be an integral part of Pakatan Rakyat, which means it should discard the practice of working as if it is a completely separate entity, like it did in Bagan Pinang and Tenang.
PAS’s campaign strategy in Merlimau will tell us whether it has learnt any lesson from the losses it suffered in the last three by-elections it contested. It lost in Bagan Pinang in 2009, in Galas in 2010 and in Tenang last month.Unlike Bagan Pinang and Tenang, Galas was a PAS seat in a PAS-controlled state and the party was confident of retaining it when the by-election was declared. Ironically, its defeat there was the most acceptable of the three losses.
It is hard to think of any candidate who could have won against the charm of Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who led the Barisan Nasional campaign there. Appointing him as BN election director was one of the most inspired acts that Umno has done in recent years.
The Bagan Pinang loss was the result of PAS’ overconfidence. It was sure that it could snatch the seat from BN because Umno’s candidate, Mohamad Isa Abdul Samad, had the taint of money politics on him. (In 2005, Umno’s disciplinary board found him guilty of buying votes in party elections.)
Instead, Umno’s winning margin was wider than the one in March 2008.
In Tenang, PAS went in knowing that it would lose. All it wanted was to boost opposition morale by reducing Umno’s majority. It didn’t make this intention public, but it was not a secret to party workers.
Well before the nomination of candidates for the Bagan Pinang by-election, PAS leaders told their colleagues in PKR and DAP not to make too much noise about Isa’s money politics. The idea was to trap BN into fielding him as its candidate so that the taint could be used as campaign ammunition.
Apparently, the PAS leadership was not aware that Isa was such a godfather to people in the Bagan Pinang area that they would not give two hoots to whether he had been found guilty of anything.
Not even the Negeri Sembilan PAS leaders seemed to know about Isa’s immense popularity. Neither did they do their homework when it came to choosing their candidate for the by-election.
The choice—Zulkefly Mohamed Omar—was an unknown in Bagan Pinang although he was PAS commissioner for Negeri Sembilan. Teluk Kemang PAS chief Ramli Ismail would have been a much better candidate. He enjoys some popularity there.
Strangest of all was the apparent reversal of the initial strategy to harp on Isa’s money politics. Instead, PAS campaigners went for petty local issues like clogged drains, filthy food stalls, and even an uncompleted bus stop.
Some PAS stalwarts have alleged sabotage by the group supporting the idea of cooperation with Umno in a unity government. They say it was the unity-government faction that plotted the strategy to draw Isa into the contest because it wanted to break Pakatan Rakyat’s winning streak.
They point out that the backbone figures of that faction were hardly seen during the campaign for Bagan Pinang.
Red tape
Other critics speak of too much red tape in PAS’ campaign organisation. PKR leaders especially suffered from this. Several of them could not give last minute ceramahs because the PAS information department stuck rigidly to its requirement of at least a day’s notice. However, this rule was relaxed for PAS leaders.
That was why Nurul Izzah Anwar, for instance, could not speak at a function in Batu 8, Telok Kemang. The local PKR leader who arranged for Nurul Izzah’s ceramah was livid.
“Short notice should not be a big deal,” he said. “It’s fine if the speaker is unknown, but Nurul Izzah is popular and a crowd puller.
“I have done my best to help PAS; if this is the type of bureaucracy they practice, then I have no comment.”
A senior PKR leader from Malacca said the scenario in Tenang was similar.
“There were cases in which Chinese PKR leaders were not allowed to deliver ceramahs in Malay majority areas,” he said.
It is not known whether PAS’ post-mortem of its Tenang defeat considered the effectiveness of such restrictions on the PKR machinery. Certainly, PKR would want it to re-consider the strategy as the Merlimau by-election looms.
Tenang has made it obvious that the so-called soft approach in wooing Malay voters to PAS does not work in Umno strongholds.
PAS should realise by now that although it has some support from rural and conservative Malays, urban Malays who are disillusioned with Umno are likely to be more comfortable with PKR than PAS. This is mainly because of the large presence of former Umno leaders and supporters in PKR.
The recent defeats should force PAS to rethink its strategy in trying to win more Malay support. After all, it was a change of strategy and rhetoric that has resulted in its winning over some Chinese and Indians.
Above all, it must be seen to be an integral part of Pakatan Rakyat, which means it should discard the practice of working as if it is a completely separate entity, like it did in Bagan Pinang and Tenang.
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