Conspiracy Theory: Malaysia the Next Iran?

by Al-Jafree Md Yusop

In 1990 Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing Iraq's oil through slant drilling, but some Iraqi sources indicate Saddam Hussein’s decision to attack Kuwait was made only a few months before the actual invasion suggesting that the regime was under feelings of severe time pressure. The invasion started on August 2, 1990, and within two days of intense combat, most of the Kuwaiti Armed Forces were either overrun by the Iraqi Republican Guard or escaped to neighbouring Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. The state of Kuwait was abolished, and Saddam announced in a few days that it was the 19th province of Iraq. Saddam Hussein’s decision partly came as a reaction towards the alleged international conspiracy against Iraq, which, in his view, was meant to weaken and destabilize the regime. Subtle shifts in the American policy together with the British and American efforts to block the export of dual-use technology to Iraq, a consequence of its nuclear program, were seen by Saddam as part of a concerted effort to build a case against Iraq. In this conspiracy theory, Kuwait was considered an accomplice of the foreign powers. In a memorandum dating from July 1990, the former Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz accused Kuwait and the UAE of production beyond their OPEC quotas and claimed that the overproduction was synchronized with the efforts of foreign powers to denigrate Iraq. Tariq argues that the fact that Kuwait refused to negotiate with Iraq and risked being invaded by it sustains the theory according to which Kuwait had received tacit support from the US even before the war started. At the same time, the Iraqi military intelligence was receiving warnings about Israeli plans to attack Iraqi nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Saddam's concern was proven in the 2003 invasion of Iraq (from March 20 to May 1, 2003) was led by the United States, alongside the United Kingdom and smaller contingents from Australia, Denmark, and Poland. Four countries participated with troops during the initial invasion phase, which lasted from March 20 to May 1. These were the United States (248,000), United Kingdom (45,000), Australia (2,000), and Poland (194). 36 other countries were involved in its aftermath. The invasion marked the beginning of the Iraq War. In preparation for the invasion, 100,000 US troops were assembled in Kuwait by February 18. The United States supplied the vast majority of the invading forces, but also received support from Kurdish irregulars in Iraqi Kurdistan. On August 14, 2002, Alireza Jafarzadeh, a spokesman for an Iranian dissident group National Council of Resistance of Iran, publicly revealed the existence of two nuclear sites under-construction: a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz (part of which is underground), and a heavy water facility in Arak. It's been strongly suggested that intelligence agencies already knew about these facilities but the reports had been classified. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) immediately sought access to these facilities and further information and co-operation from Iran regarding its nuclear program. According to arrangements in force at the time for implementation of Iran's safeguards agreement with the IAEA, Iran was not required to allow IAEA inspections of a new nuclear facility until six months before nuclear material is introduced into that facility. At the time, Iran was not even required to inform the IAEA of the existence of the facility. This 'six months' clause was standard for implementation of all IAEA safeguards agreements until 1992, when the IAEA Board of Governors decided that facilities should be reported during the planning phase, even before construction began. Iran was the last country to accept that decision, and only did so February 26, 2003, after the IAEA investigation began. Now with the threat to impose economic sanction to Iran by the US, Iran might just end up being the third Islamic country that will fall under the western conspiracy to bring it down, as claimed by Saddam Hussein prior to the Iraq War. We all now know that the true reason behind the invasion of Afghanistan is about the proposed USD3 billion Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline for a natural gas pipeline across Afghanistan into Pakistan. The Strait of Malacca is a narrow, 805 km stretch of water between Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia) and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. It is named after the Empire of Melaka that ruled over the archipelago between 1414 to 1511. From an economic and strategic perspective the Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. The strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, China, Japan and South Korea. Over 50,000 vessels pass through the strait per year, carrying about one-quarter of the world's traded goods including oil, Chinese manufactures, and Indonesian coffee. About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through the strait, mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to Asian markets such as China, Japan, and South Korea. In 2006, an estimated 15 million barrels per day were transported through the strait. In 2004, a minister in the Prime Minister's Department, Mustapa Mohamed, revealed that Malaysia's oil reserves stood at 4.84 billion barrels while natural gas reserves increased to 89 trillion cubic feet. This was an increase of 7.2%. As of 1 January 2007, Petronas reported that oil and gas reserves in Malaysia amounted to 20.18 billion barrels equivalent. The government estimates that, at current production rates, Malaysia will be able to produce oil up to 18 years and gas for 35 years. In 2004, Malaysia is ranked 24th in terms of world oil reserves and 13th for gas. 56% of the oil reserves exist in the Peninsula while 19% exist in East Malaysia. The government collects oil royalties of which 5% are passed to the states and the rest retained by the federal government. With all these advantages, could Malaysia be the next Muslim country targeted by the conspiracy of the western countries as claimed by the late Saddam Hussein? Only time will tell.