Since rumours, climaxed with a Malaysiakini report, surfaced of at least one 'sure' defection of a Penang PKR MP, analysts have started to work on the theory that BN is trying hard to engineer 8 or 9 defections to re-gain its 2/3 in the lower house.
By "Sun Line" in a Facebook Note.
I shall not dwell on possible state level defections in this Note as it would only distract from the bigger implications at federal level.
While the elusive 2/3 may be the holy grail, things can get pretty messy even if just *three* PKR reps jump ship.
Why?
Here's why: PKR has 30 seats, DAP 28, PAS 23. If 3 PKR frogs leap, DAP becomes the strongest seat-based party in the opposition.
By convention and tradition the party with the most seats in opposition gets the Opposition Leadership position. This, however, is not a legal requirement because, in law, anyone -- even Zul -- can be opposition leader as long as he/she has the majority support of those on the opposition benches.
DAP and the then Keadilan have set a precedent in the 1999-2004 term by supporting Pas for the post even though their combined numbers are more than PAS, at a time when DAP and Pas were publicly bitch-slapping each other over the Islamic state issue.
If 3 PKR reps jump, Anwar has no moral claims to the post. As he's not even PKR's president, it would be hard-pressed to politically and morally justify giving the position to a mere 'de facto' leader of the second biggest party in Pakatan.
If he gets to keep the job, opponents will have a field day cementing claims that Pakatan is all about Anwar.
DAP members and supporters would also demand the party stick to convention and tradition and lay claims to the opposition throne.
If the post goes to DAP, then another Pandora's box will be opened. Umno will use all its, and the govt's, resources to cement claims that DAP pulls the Malay strings in Pakatan.
Under present socio-political conditions it just takes three frogs to re-shape public perception and the political landscape.al
This is, in my opinion, Umno's immediate plan. Selangor is peanuts compared to just 3 PKR federal frogs jumping.
Maybe this explains why Anwar is still hugging his political errant child so tightly despite loud calls for him to sack that fella.
Is he, in effect, just hugging himself?
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* Sun Line is a socio-political kaypochee on Facebook. His Note can be viewed at its source at http://www.facebook.com/notes/sun-line/three-frogs-and-another-pandoras-box/287914044016 .
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