My Sinchew
by Mohsin Abdullah
To anyone aspiring to be the new YB there, the simple political calculation is -- get half of the Malay votes and a solid non-Malay support and the state seat is won. And that calculation seem to favour the Pakatan Rakyat candidate. At least on paper and based on current situation or the political mood so to speak.
The seat was won by the BN through UMNO in the 2008 General election. Azman Mohd Nor beat PAS' Ramli Ismail by a 2,333 vote majority. Azman passed away recently and by election must be held soon. And it will be a showdown between UMNO and PAS or PKR (but strong possibility a PAS candidate will be representing the Pakatan Rakyat again, just like in the March 2008 GE).
Political observers feel the Pakatan candidate (doesn't matter PAS or PKR) is capable of getting at least half of the Malay votes and should garner good support of the Chinese. The UMNO man will be banking on Malay support and a reasonable good showing in Chinese areas. Thus the Indian votes will tip the scale. Hence both candidates will be out to woo the Indians.
Definitely events hundreds of kilometres away from Bagan Pinang will be played out as election issues to win the hearts and minds of the Indians. Thus Penang's Kampung Buah Pala and the Shah Alam temple relocation issue will be central.
For both the BN and Pakatan Rakyat, Kampung Buah Pala is one issue which is a 50-50 situation i.e. you win some you lose. Votes that is. But the Shah Alam temple relocation issue can see Pakatan getting the votes.
Many Indians are angry and sad over the cow head protest and will throw their support behind Pakatan. After all the Selangor government is a Pakatan administration, one seen as trying to solve a long standing problem. That's an advantage. But the Selangor government has also been accused by their detractors of kow towing to the demands of the non Malays. Now that can be a disadvantage.
However, many blame UMNO for the cow head incident. And although some of those involved have been charged in court many are not satisfied, eyeing the action suspiciously.
The Bagan Pinang by election is the ninth since the March 8 2008 GE. So far Pakatan has won 7. The BN's only victory was Batang Ai Sarawak. Out of the 7 by elections in the Peninsula, Kuala Terengganu was the one seat UMNO was defending when by election was held. It failed to keep the seat losing to Pakatan's PAS candidate.
Now it's Bagan Pinang. It must and will do all it can to not only defend the seat but to stop the Pakatan's splendid run thus far.
In Bagan Pinang, racial issues sadly will be used. Accusations will be thrown. Accusations such as one is neglecting one's own race in favour of others. I pray I am wrong.
While UMNO work on the Malay community, it expect its partners in the BN coalition to deliver the non Malay votes. But the MCA are in crisis. Can they get the job done?
Are they willing to work hard now that they have got problems of their own? The MIC are also seeing internal squabbles among the various camps. And that aside, confidence in the party among the Indian community has eroded. Can they convince the Indians?
But the Pakatan too have its own problems which will be exploited by the opponents. The BN through UMNO are the incumbent in Bagan Pinang. Being incumbent many things are at their disposal. All can be turned into their favour. And one advantage is the big number of postal votes. Traditionally postal votes from the police and Armed Forces go to the BN.
Still its early days. A battle is in store. Interesting and ferocious as well.
by Mohsin Abdullah
While the Indians are hurt over the cow head incident, the community find itself getting star attention in Bagan Pinang.
They could very well be the king maker in the Bagan Pinang by election the date of which is yet to be announced.
Bagan Pinang, in Negeri Sembilan, is a Malay majority area. According to official statistics 57.6 % of its 14,000 plus voters are Malays. Chinese make up 14.3 %, Indians 25% and others 2%.
They could very well be the king maker in the Bagan Pinang by election the date of which is yet to be announced.
Bagan Pinang, in Negeri Sembilan, is a Malay majority area. According to official statistics 57.6 % of its 14,000 plus voters are Malays. Chinese make up 14.3 %, Indians 25% and others 2%.
To anyone aspiring to be the new YB there, the simple political calculation is -- get half of the Malay votes and a solid non-Malay support and the state seat is won. And that calculation seem to favour the Pakatan Rakyat candidate. At least on paper and based on current situation or the political mood so to speak.
The seat was won by the BN through UMNO in the 2008 General election. Azman Mohd Nor beat PAS' Ramli Ismail by a 2,333 vote majority. Azman passed away recently and by election must be held soon. And it will be a showdown between UMNO and PAS or PKR (but strong possibility a PAS candidate will be representing the Pakatan Rakyat again, just like in the March 2008 GE).
Political observers feel the Pakatan candidate (doesn't matter PAS or PKR) is capable of getting at least half of the Malay votes and should garner good support of the Chinese. The UMNO man will be banking on Malay support and a reasonable good showing in Chinese areas. Thus the Indian votes will tip the scale. Hence both candidates will be out to woo the Indians.
Definitely events hundreds of kilometres away from Bagan Pinang will be played out as election issues to win the hearts and minds of the Indians. Thus Penang's Kampung Buah Pala and the Shah Alam temple relocation issue will be central.
For both the BN and Pakatan Rakyat, Kampung Buah Pala is one issue which is a 50-50 situation i.e. you win some you lose. Votes that is. But the Shah Alam temple relocation issue can see Pakatan getting the votes.
Many Indians are angry and sad over the cow head protest and will throw their support behind Pakatan. After all the Selangor government is a Pakatan administration, one seen as trying to solve a long standing problem. That's an advantage. But the Selangor government has also been accused by their detractors of kow towing to the demands of the non Malays. Now that can be a disadvantage.
However, many blame UMNO for the cow head incident. And although some of those involved have been charged in court many are not satisfied, eyeing the action suspiciously.
The Bagan Pinang by election is the ninth since the March 8 2008 GE. So far Pakatan has won 7. The BN's only victory was Batang Ai Sarawak. Out of the 7 by elections in the Peninsula, Kuala Terengganu was the one seat UMNO was defending when by election was held. It failed to keep the seat losing to Pakatan's PAS candidate.
Now it's Bagan Pinang. It must and will do all it can to not only defend the seat but to stop the Pakatan's splendid run thus far.
In Bagan Pinang, racial issues sadly will be used. Accusations will be thrown. Accusations such as one is neglecting one's own race in favour of others. I pray I am wrong.
While UMNO work on the Malay community, it expect its partners in the BN coalition to deliver the non Malay votes. But the MCA are in crisis. Can they get the job done?
Are they willing to work hard now that they have got problems of their own? The MIC are also seeing internal squabbles among the various camps. And that aside, confidence in the party among the Indian community has eroded. Can they convince the Indians?
But the Pakatan too have its own problems which will be exploited by the opponents. The BN through UMNO are the incumbent in Bagan Pinang. Being incumbent many things are at their disposal. All can be turned into their favour. And one advantage is the big number of postal votes. Traditionally postal votes from the police and Armed Forces go to the BN.
Still its early days. A battle is in store. Interesting and ferocious as well.
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