ANALYSIS
By Baradan KuppusamySEPT 28 - With Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi eclipsed, his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak on the rise and the Umno succession dispute all but settled, it is tough times ahead for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the erstwhile prime minister-in-waiting.
While meeting fund managers In Hong Kong on Thursday Anwar put up a brave front to questions on whether it is troubling him with Najib set to get the job he craves and whether the leadership transition in Umno means a strong and united Umno training its guns on him.
"No," Anwar told them. "In fact the changes makes it easier for me…nothing really has changed because the corrupt system remains, the cronyism remains and race and discrimination remains."
He went on to thrash Najib, attempting to link him to unexplained and unanswered questions over the murder of Altantuya Shaariibuu, the Mongolian woman who was blown up into pieces in late 2006 with C4 explosives.
Anwar also linked Najib with alleged "shady deals" involving multi-billion defence contracts and his inability to reform the corrupt system or give Malaysians a new hope of the future.
However after a string of successes, the political landscape is changing and turning hostile for Anwar.
His plans to seize power have been killed in its infancy and his allies DAP and PAS have got over the mesmerising effect of the Anwar-charm offensive and are now openly dragging their feet.
Worst is a potentially debilitating sodomy trial that will sap his energy, create distance between him and PAS and DAP and raising fresh questions about his ability and suitability to lead a nation from the docks.
On the deadline to seize power, Anwar has also changed course disappointing his legions of supporters and alienating fence sitters. "It is not an issue of deadlines any more…I urge Malaysians who believe in change to be patient."
Whether he has the numbers or not however will be tested when Parliament reconvenes on Oct 13 to debate and approve the 2009 budget.
If he has the numbers as he claims to have he can easily kill the budget and demonstrate to the world that he really has majority support in the 222-seat parliament.
The budget of 24 ministries have to be debated and approved and if he can kill any one of the ministries' budgets, that would be a successful vote of no-confidence against Abdullah and the BN government.
"He has 24 chances to do it," said Dewan Rakyat deputy Speaker Datuk Wan Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar in Kuching on Saturday virtually throwing the gauntlet to Anwar.
However on Oct 7 Session Court judge Komathy Suppiah will rule whether to hear the Sodomy II case or transfer it to the High Court as the prosecutors want.
There is no real issue here because a transfer is an established procedure and even if she refuses, which is really going against established norm, the government can always appeal her decision and probably have it reversed.
A higher court can reverse her decision on appeal, if necessary, even on the same day.
Anwar's lawyers have argued that the transfer was signed by Attorney-General Ghani Patail whom Anwar is suing for fabricating evidence in the 1999 sodomy case which saw him imprisoned for six years for corruption.
In 2000 Anwar was jailed an additional nine years for sodomy but the conviction was quashed in 2004 and he was freed after serving six years altogether.
Meanwhile, the political ground is slipping under Anwar with the changes in Umno's leadership and by extension that of the country.
Abdullah had been kindest to Anwar among the top Umno leaders.
Abdullah, who had also tried to use him to scare Umno into submission, is leaving for good having to make an announcement before Oct 9 whether he is offering himself to contest as Umno president.
It was also Abdullah who Anwar had hoped to confound and stampede into handing over the government to him by triggering a mass exodus, a harebrained scheme that has since died under the weight of its own implausibility.
That small window for Anwar - Abdullah's willingness to play by the rules, an inherent sense of justice and fair play - has closed with the Prime Minister's impending departure leaving Anwar without a "friend."
Anwar could have inadvertently hastened Abdullah's departure after his Information chief Tian Chua claimed Anwar and Abdullah were meeting behind the scenes to discuss a transfer of power, something that Umno veterans feared the most.
Anwar had to rubbish Chua's statement immediately but it did not help when the Umno supreme council met a day later to decide on the transition.
Abdullah's departure leaves Anwar facing the brute force of power and real politics exposed without his breastplate as the old forces that ousted him in 1998 and benefited from the political vacuum he left behind, now gather once again to stop his march to power.
While Anwar's troubles are set to mount in the power game, public perception and support for him remains strong. He is continued to be seen as the best future leader for a new Malaysia.
However the most recent poll by the Merdeka Center also shows that the racial divide between Malays and non-Malays is wider and widening with more Malays backing Umno and Najib on one side and more Chinese and Indians backing Anwar and the Pakatan coalition on the other.
A very dangerous sign in a multi-ethnic society already widely divided over race, religion and discriminatory policies.
The poll based on 1,002 people showed that 39.3 per cent supported Anwar and 33.8 per cent backed Najib.
While about 40% of those polled supported Anwar but the remaining 60% were either not in favour, undecided or marked as "don't know" - a rather high percentage compared to the 70% or more support from non-Malays he had received on March 8.
If these figures are to be accepted it means the non-Malay support for Anwar is sliding.
His constant attempts at grabbing power are causing instability, uncertainties and people, especially the middle class, tend to worry.
For now Anwar has eased off on his "take over" games and for the future he should reaslise that the March 8 vote was for change and not a personal vote for Anwar or an endorsement of his frolics.
He leads a coalition that rules five big states and he should work at change there to win public confidence and not be carried away by his own rhetoric.
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