By Michael Kaung - Free Malaysia TodaySANDAKAN: As the Batu Sapi parliamentary by-elections campaign blitz goes into overdrive three days before polling day, voters here find themselves trapped in a time-warped cycle of promises and disappointment.
For some casting their ballot for the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government will not be easy but their hands are tied.
The BN sees a potential of up to 6,500 voters in the bag already. It will come from the 1,500-odd postal votes from navy and military personnel plus 5,000 or so from migrants from neighbouring countries who have secured citizenship and suffrage, but are living outside the constituency.
The BN election machinery is said to have located and factored in about 3,000 of these “new” voters to predict a win on Nov 4 polling day.
"The BN is now looking for the remaining 2,000 who are on the electoral rolls," said a political analyst here who wished to remain anonymous.
Despite “gains” by Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), BN is confident of winning over the solidly Muslim Bumiputera voting bloc.
These are the Suluk, Bajau, Orang Sungai, Bugis, and Brunei Malay. Most are poor fishermen living along the coast and on the islands (between 20 minutes and a hour by boat) off Sandakan. Together they make up 60% of the Batu Sapi electorate.
"Umno is depending on getting 60% of this total vote," said a political party worker.
"If the party can get that plus 20% of the Chinese vote, then it believes the BN will win by a 5,000- vote majority," he said.
BN using DAP
The DAP, which is campaigning for PKR candidate Ansari Abdullah, can ruin SAPP candidate Yong Teck Lee's increasingly possible chances of an upset win.
"BN's aim is to use DAP to split the Chinese vote that may go to SAPP. DAP claims it can deliver about 2,000 Chinese votes to PKR,” said the party worker.
The PKR camp, meanwhile, believes that its candidate stands a good chance if it can get 40% of the Bumiputera and about 20% of the Chinese vote
According to sources, Yong, who has up to 80% of the Chinese vote with his “Sabah for Sabahans” campaign drumbeat, is looking to get at least 20% of the Bumiputera vote through Nahalan Damsal (a former state minister and ex-PKR Batu Sapi chief, who has voiced his support for Yong rather than for Ansari).
Nahalan still commands respect in Sekong, one of the two state constituencies that make up Batu Sapi. Though defeated, he garnered 2,082 votes when he went up against current Sekong Assemblyman Samsuddin Yahya in the last general election.
SAPP's concern is the whispering campaign by the DAP that Yong will take the party back into the BN after he wins.
The allegation can inflict enormous damage on Yong's chances and he has strongly criticised DAP Sabah for sabotaging a fellow opposition party.
"The BN wants the Chinese votes split three ways and is hoping DAP will do the job," said a political analyst.
"As it is, BN can get about 1,000-plus Chinese votes. If the Barisan can get 2,000, it will be very good."
The BN election machinery is expected to pour in funds this week.
Angry voters
BN leaders have started delivering the “good news” by announcing new bridges, roads, walkways in the water villages, houses for the poor, extension of land titles and bringing into line prices of foodstuff in rural areas, which are higher than in the towns due to transport costs.
They have started distributing money to independent Chinese schools and mosques as well as announced the construction of a grand new mosque for the constituency.
But whether this will be enough to soothe the palpable anger of the voters is left to be seen.
Many have openly criticised the BN for "promising everything including the moon but delivering nothing”, said a taxi driver who asked not to be named.
Their anger was glaringly demonstrated when Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin attended a town hall dinner for Chinese associations.
Muhyiddin, who arrived late at the packed hall, gave a speech to a half empty hall as most of the people who came left soon after dinner.
BN followers were quick to downplay the embarrassing incident, saying that it was normal as the attendees did not want to stay up late.
However, others say that it clearly showed how Sabah Chinese viewed Umno and Muhyiddin over various racially tinged statements made by him and party officials in Kuala Lumpur.
On the other side of the divide, both opposition parties are feeling jittery over talk that some voters may cast their ballots numerous times at different polling stations.
Getting transport to the polling stations will also be a factor.
The BN is far superior when it comes to logistics but will not pick up voters who have been identified with the opposition.
The identification can be done based on a scrutiny of the voting streams in the last election.
Internal sabotage
What BN fears the most is internal sabotage by rival groups within Umno which cannot see eye-to-eye with Chief Minister Musa Aman and Samsudin.
Within PKR, Ansari's candidacy has not gone down well. He is not accepted in all areas. He is banking on supporters, including de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, Selangor Menteri Besar Abdul Khalid Ibrahim and PAS vice-president Mahfuz Omar to bring in the votes.
Yong, on the other hand, is making a big impact on his own with his quick thinking, wit and ready smile. His argument that Sabah must regain its autonomous powers has also gone down well.
The party of BN candidate Linda Tsen, Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), has virtually surrendered the BN election campaign to Umno and is just making up the numbers.
Influential locals like Karim Ghani, a veteran politician, and retired state education department director Hasbullah Taha have been making the rounds to get disgruntled former members of the now defunct United Sabah National Organisation (Usno) to vote for Ansari.
The PKR campaign, however, shot itself in the foot when its Batu Sapi division chief, Hassnar Ibrahim, ordered seasoned campaigners like Jeffrey Kitingan, Christina Liew, Sabah PKR chief Ahmad Thamrin Jaini, and Awang Tengah Awang Amin not to come to Batu Sapi.
In doing so, Hassnar, who is known to be quite pugnacious and physical in his approach to politics, has also alienated a vast number of PKR sympathisers in the constituency.
Supporters of Thamrin, who had expected their man to be selected as the PKR candidate as he is from Sandakan, are dissatisfied and are being kept away from a lot of functions.
Like the BN, PKR is also concerned over internal sabotage on polling day.
Unkept promises
Cash is expected to start flowing into the constituency for distribution to key BN allies from tomorrow to take the edge off the complaint heard everywhere that Umno and BN leaders have “not kept their promises”.
One voter complained that Samsudin and Musa's people have cornered all the contracts, including the Sandakan Municipal Council contracts.
Tsen's late husband, Edmund Chong, whose death in a road accident on Oct 9 triggered the by-election, was known as a “weekend MP”.
Some islanders living off the coast of Batu Sapi claimed he promised them solar-cell powered lights and they were thrilled when one was put up at a jetty on one of the islands.
"They thought more would be put up for their house lighting but when none came, they said that the first one was only there for him to come fishing in the night," said a local.
"These are promises made 13 to 15 years ago. There is still no running water and electricity in many of these villages. They save rain water or bring drinking water from the town."
The Suluks and Bajaus living on these islands are not newcomers. They have been there since colonial times.
"The newcomers stay on the mainland near the town," explained a local.
While people have rallied to SAPP's election slogan "Sabah for Sabahans", the party's main problem has to do with trust.
Voters are wary of SAPP's history in the BN and are not sure which way Yong will move if he is elected.
Money laundering
Other dirt is also coming to the surface. On Saturday, PKR lodged a police report against Musa over allegations of money laundering.
The issues raised against Yong are his involvement in the Sabah Trust Fund fiasco and the Forest Management Units.
PBS is non-existent in the campaign. Gerakan has more campaign flags than supporters while the Liberal Democratic Party has been unable to convince the Chinese voters why they should support Musa who has been dismissed as the "vacuum cleaner".
"Umno people know the Muslim Bumiputeras are really frustrated but believe that handouts and the 'new voters' will make the difference.
"The new voters will cast their ballots for the BN… they have no choice," said a political observer.
But while BN may have the advantage heading into polling day on Thursday, things will not look so cosy after the dust has settled in Batu Sapi.
"The next general election they (the people in Batu Sapi) will boot out BN. People know what happened during the March 2008 election. They will do the same here... no chance for them," said a taxi driver taking a passenger to Sandakan airport for a flight back to Kota Kinabalu.
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