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Monday 27 September 2010

Why Anwar will not enter the fray in PKR polls

By Joe Fernandez - Free Malaysia Today,

COMMENT PKR ketua umum (de facto leader) Anwar Ibrahim has received any number of nominations for the presidency of the party, currently held by his wife Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

The nominations for Anwar are nowhere near that received by Wan Aziz, but nothing should be read in these numbers. If Anwar had indicated at any time even the slightest interest in the post, his wife would have been the first to announce that she would not be offering herself again.

In the absence of any interest on Anwar’s part, the party divisions took the cue that the status quo should continue. Or it could be that they really think that Anwar should stay out for any number of reasons. Either way, it probably doesn’t matter as far as Anwar is concerned.

It’s not immediately known whether the divisions which nominated Anwar for the presidency are genuinely in favour of him, or just testing the waters or “want to smoke him out”.

Again, none of these speculations are likely to figure in Anwar’s mind as he keeps reiterating his position on the party’s presidency.

The theory that an Anwar candidacy for the presidency would invite a challenge from someone like Zaid Ibrahim doesn’t quite merit any comment at all but, anyway, here goes.

The latter, a newcomer in PKR, is a one-man show which is still finding its way. Besides, it was Anwar who invited Zaid to join PKR after he left Umno in an apparent huff over alleged law reforms.

Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Department VK Liew, who continues from where Zaid left off, doesn’t seem to be having the newspaper headline-hogging “problems” that Zaid had with the job.

Compelling reason

It would not be the done thing for Zaid to accept the invite to join PKR, only to end up challenging Anwar for the presidency of the party. Zaid would have been seen, at least in Malay eyes, as a man in too much of a hurry and over-ambitious, more for himself rather than the agenda for change and reform.

The most compelling reason why Anwar shouldn’t go for the presidency is the little matter of the Sodomy II charges hanging over his head. It would place the party in an extremely tight spot should he be elected president and subsequently be carted off to jail. However, although Sodomy II can be factored in as one possible reason, it’s not that one reason that has determined that all other reasons pale in significance.

Those who whine and moan that the post of ketua umum isn’t mentioned in the PKR constitution are missing the point. They are not seeing the forest for the trees.

There are much more important factors to reckon with than holding a potentially divisive party post. One needs to look at both sides of the political divide. The job description is written as one goes along without the additional burden of a brand name post. Paracetamol as a pain-reliever (analgesic) and fever-reducer (antipyretic) is no less effective whether it’s called by its generic name or goes by a label like Panadol.

Anwar’s nemesis, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, has carved out a continued role for himself in the politics of the country. He has done this by stealth and cunning trying to emulate the late Deng Ziao Peng of China. Deng, despite having no official post after stepping down as the chairman of the powerful Military Commission, ruled China until his last breath.

Mahathir is of course no Deng who, unlike the former, never engaged in rhetoric after he “retired” and avoided the polemics and newspaper headlines. Deng was not roundly cursed and condemned either and was hardly seen in public. He knew what buttons to push to get the four most powerful men in China – the chairman of the military commission, the president, the prime minister, and the secretary-general of the Communist Party – keeping him in the know about important matters and seeking his guidance and blessing.

Between the Deng and Mahathir approaches, Anwar is seen as the glue that holds PKR, the DAP and PAS together in the Pakatan Rakyat. This is in the words of Wan Azizah herself on her last visit to Kota Kinabalu for a Chinese New Year function. The Sarawak National Party (SNAP) is a Pakatan member as well since recent months.

Hence the glue role sees Anwar naturally cast as the de facto leader of Pakatan, not just PKR. This can be seen in the fact that when Zaid began describing himself as Pakatan chairman, he was quickly reminded by DAP adviser Lim Kit Siang and PAS president Hadi Awang that he was merely the co-ordinator working on the coalition’s Common Policy Framework (CPF). The CPF brings together the different manifestos of the opposition alliance in a cohesive manner.

Smooth performer

Anwar has been a smooth performer so far except when it came to Sabah which, in the public eye, continues to confound him. If Sabah continues to be a problem for Anwar, Sarawak remains one as well as both states stand resolutely together when facing any interference from Peninsular Malaysia.

But behind the scenes, Anwar is constantly reading Sabah and Sarawak and walking the tightrope in both states with some degree of success so far. This can be seen in the fact that 8% of the PKR’s 400,000-odd membership is drawn from the KadazanDusunMurut and 7.5% from among the Dayaks.

The difference between Peninsular Malaysia on the one hand and Malaysian Borneo on the other is that Anwar can only operate in the latter through someone like Sabah strongman Jeffrey Gapari Kitingan. Anwar is not in a position to appeal directly to the members and electorate in Sabah and Sarawak as in Peninsular Malaysia.

If Jeffrey is edged out of the Sabah and Sarawak equation, Anwar wouldn’t have any one formidable figure as a partner in both states in the agenda for change and reform. Anwar has previously tried several times to cut Jeffrey down to size to better promote himself in Sabah and Sarawak but with no success at all. He has been forced to sue for peace even when appearing to flex his muscles. The Kitingan family, the elder Joseph Pairin Kitingan being another factor as Huguan Siou (paramount chief), has sewn up the politics of Sabah and Sarawak between themselves.

Patently, Mahathir and Anwar cannot confine the politics of Malaysia to themselves.

Also, Anwar’s take on politics goes beyond Mahathir but that’s another story which takes the ketua umum’s agenda for change and reform a giant step forward whether he’s in or out of jail.

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