By JK Jayan - Free Malaysia Today,
COMMENT As the country gears up for the Sarawak state election, speculation is rife that the 13th general election is around the corner as well. There is a possibility that both elections will be held simultaneously.
It will be a master strategy for the Barisan Nasional leadership to have both elections at the same time as it will prevent Peninsular-based Pakatan Rakyat leaders from campaigning in Sarawak.
Pakatan leaders, who are keen on capturing Sarawak to provide a boost to their pursuit of Putrajaya, will be restrained to their respective constituencies.
Given Sarawak’s landscape and the short campaign period usually allocated for general elections, no Pakatan leader from the peninsula will dare waste precious time in Sarawak.
The Sibu by-election has taught some bitter lessons to the BN leadership. It revealed what will happen if key Pakatan leaders are allowed to campaign in Sarawak.
Catch-22 for BN
In Sarawak, BN is now faced with the formidable task of deciding whether to allow current Chief Minister Taib Mahmud to lead the election battle or to find a replacement.
Sources familiar with Sarawak politics say that while Pakatan is heading into Sarawak with some confidence, BN is in a “Catch-22” situation, saddled with problems and issues associated with Taib.
If BN retains Taib as chief minister, then they will be facing a barrage of questions and criticisms from the opposition regarding the corruption allegations against him.
On the other hand, if BN drops Taib, they will be losing one of the most experienced and seasoned leaders in the history of Sarawak politics.
BN will also be faced with the arduous task of naming a capable leader to lead the BN charge in Sarawak. The coalition will be torn between naming a Melanau Malay or a Dayak as the next chief minister and Sarawak BN leader.
BN will be able to turn the tables against Pakatan by dropping Taib and replacing him with a Dayak leader.
With just that one master stroke, BN will be able to drastically change the current political situation in Sarawak by soothing the feelings of the Dayak community and knocking out a key political strategy mooted by the Pakatan leadership -- to name a Dayak leader as chief minister in the event they win the state election.
Three factors favouring Pakatan
Three key factors seem to be favouring Pakatan in Sarawak. The first is their promise that the state will have a Dayak chief minister in the event Pakatan forms the next state government.
This may drive the Dayak community, which forms almost half of Sarawak's population, to support the Pakatan candidates.
The second factor is the promise by Pakatan to increase the oil royalty to Sarawak by a hefty
20% through which more development projects can be initiated. Neutral voters in Sarawak may be swayed by this.
The third factor is the backing of the Chinese community through DAP. The Chinese form 26% of the population in the state and their support can be the deciding factor in many constituencies.
Put together, these three factors can tilt BN’s fortunes in Sarawak even though the coalition is mightier in terms of election machinery and financial strength.If the Sarawak state election is held separately and if BN loses, it will have a profound effect on the parliamentary elections.
With the state administration under their control, the Pakatan leadership will be able to concentrate on the parliamentary seats in Sarawak and if they can win at least half of the 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak, then the prospect of BN forming the next federal government will be doomed.
1Malaysia backfiring
There are also other reasons why the BN leadership may decide against stretching their term of office until 2012 or 2013.
There is widespread speculation that the world will be hit by an economic downturn towards the end of the year or early next year. If this happens, it will also suffocate the Malaysian economy, which is already facing a decline in foreign direct investments (FDIs).
On the political front, BN’s chances of winning back the lost states and parliamentary seats in the peninsula look bleak. On the surface, it appears that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak has managed to win some points with his 1Malaysia campaign.
However, the campaign is also backfiring on BN, with opposition to it coming from towering and influential personalities such as Dr Mahathir Mohamad. The Malay right-wing movement Perkasa is also punching holes in Najib's grand plan.
In 2012, most of the BN parties, including Umno, are expected to hold their party elections which will lead to infighting and backstabbing; and this will definitely reflect on the general election.
Although the party elections can be postponed after the general election, the undercurrent, especially, in Umno will be strong.
Dragging the general election until the last leg will only give more room to the opposition to prepare themselves. The infighting among the political parties in Sabah may worsen.
And if there are some negative outcomes from the ongoing French investigation into the submarine scandal, that too will affect the image of Najib’s administration.
On the same note, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim continues to be a formidable force with his sodomy trial having little or no impact on his credibility and popularity.
The recent revelation about the affair between a member of the prosecution team and the complainant is also working in favour of Anwar.
With so many uncertainties looming, there is every possibility that the BN leadership may decide to hold the next general election simultaneously with the Sarawak state election to catch the opposition by surprise.
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