Over to you Zaid

PKR, DAP and PAS must be buried, and buried deep. But from the ashes of PKR, DAP and PAS must arise Pakatan Rakyat, the legendary phoenix rising from the ashes. The next election, whether it be another by-election or the next general election, must no longer be about PKR, DAP or PAS. It has to be about Pakatan Rakyat.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Four days before Nomination Day, Datuk Zaid Ibrahim ‘disappeared’. And he was not due to ‘resurface’ until 11 October 2009, Polling Day in Bagan Pinang. I am not, however, at liberty to reveal what his mission was. This would of course be revealed in due time.

“Should you not be in Bagan Pinang?” asked my wife, Marina. “You should be giving ceramahs and campaigning in the by-election.”

“Ceramahs are not going to help us win this by-election,” replied Zaid. “It will take more than that.”

“The Chinese betting syndicate has predicted a 1,500 majority for Umno,” I told Zaid. “But the Indians tell me it is going to be the other way around.”

“Both are wrong,” he replied.

“You mean the majority is going to be narrower?”

“No, higher.”

“Oh. And who will win?”

“Umno, of course.”

“Can’t Pakatan Rakyat reduce the majority from the last election?”

“The majority is going to be double the last election. Expect a surprise. Pakatan Rakyat is going to get massacred in Bagan Pinang.”

My wife and I remained silent. It was certainly something that needs time to absorb.

“Double? You mean more than 4,000 votes?”

“Maybe even worse than that. Umno will field Isa. They have no choice. And Isa can win even if he stands as an independent candidate. So it will be more an Isa win rather than an Umno win. But Umno can still win even without Isa, unless there is an internal sabotage by Umno people. So with Isa the win is going to be even greater.”

“Why?”

That was all I could ask at that point.

“Why do you think Umno is going to win big?”

And Zaid went through the reasons as to why he feels Pakatan Rakyat is going to be taught a lesson this time around. What he had to say was actually not a far departure from what I too have been saying in the many articles I have written since the March 2008 general election. So I would merely be repeating what has already been said and we would be covering the same old ground. Suffice to say the problem with Pakatan Rakyat is a leadership problem, plus much more.

Pakatan Rakyat has a serious structural flaw. It still thinks and acts as if it is the opposition. No doubt it is the opposition in parliament and some of the states. But even in the states that it is already the government it still thinks and acts like the opposition.

Pakatan Rakyat has not yet come to grips with the fact that it is the government in some states, and key states at that. It can no longer speak as if it is still the opposition. It has to demonstrate that it is a government, and a better government to boot.

Pakatan Rakyat has not come to realisation that it is a government-in-waiting. And as a government-in-waiting it has to convince the people what it can do if and when it forms the federal government. When it was campaigning as the opposition it is well and fine to harp on the failings and shortcomings of the government. But now that it is already the government it is no longer enough to continue harping about all the mistakes and errors of the previous Barisan Nasional government.

Barisan Nasional is no longer the government. You are. People do not want to hear about what the previous government did. After all, the people have already kicked out the previous government because of what it did. People do not even want to hear about what you can do. Talk is cheap. People want to see what you are doing. And they have not seen it yet.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating, they would say in the US. What you say in ceramahs during by-elections is not what gives the voters confidence. The fact that the majority of the people who attend ceramahs are outsiders who are not even registered to vote in that constituency makes it worse. I said this way back in 1999 in my article in Harakah. Crowds do not translate to votes, in particular if the crowd that you attract at your ceramahs will not be voting there come Polling Day.

Unfortunately, it was not Pakatan Rakyat but PAS that contested yesterday’s by-election in Bagan Pinang. The voters are not prepared to accept PAS. Even if the candidate had been from PKR the voters would have rejected him or her, contrary to what many are saying that PKR would have stood a better chance than PAS.

Yes, the people are not interested in voting for PAS, PKR or DAP. They want to vote for Pakatan Rakyat. But Pakatan Rakyat was 'absent' in Bagan Pinang. So the people decided to vote for Barisan Nasional instead.

It is not about Barisan Nasional manipulating the postal votes. After all, how many postal votes were there? Even if 30% of the postal votes had gone to PAS like in the previous elections Barisan Nasional would still have won with a handsome majority.

It is also not about race. We can’t lament that the Malays are stupid for voting for a corrupted candidate. We also can’t blame the Indians and Chinese for swinging back to Barisan Nasional. It was across the board. PAS lost everywhere. It did not win a single UPU (unit peti undi or polling station). It lost all 18 UPUs. And its share of postal votes, which had traditionally been at least 30%, dropped drastically, which compounded the problem.

The opposition says that the young people did not come out to vote. Umno says it managed to win the votes of the young people. But there was a more than 80% voter turnout, a very high turnout indeed. So certainly many did come out to vote.

But never mind. The by-election is over and the people have spoken. It may actually be good that Pakatan Rakyat lost this by-election, and quite badly too. If they had won then they would remain complacent. They would never listen to reason. Better they lose now, in a by-election, when there is still time to do something about it, rather than they lose later, in the next general election, when it will be too late to do anything.

PKR, DAP and PAS must be buried, and buried deep. But from the ashes of PKR, DAP and PAS must arise Pakatan Rakyat, the legendary phoenix rising from the ashes. The next election, whether it be another by-election or the next general election, must no longer be about PKR, DAP or PAS. It has to be about Pakatan Rakyat.

And stop talking. As Zaid said, ceramahs will get us nowhere. It is not going to help us win elections. What will would be the confidence that the voters place in Pakatan Rakyat as a credible alternative to Barisan Nasional.

This, Pakatan Rakyat is unable to do. Hell, there is not even a Pakatan Rakyat to speak about in the true sense of the word.

Sad as it may be, Zaid was right. And he said all this even before Nomination Day on 3 October 2009 -- days before we even knew whom the candidates were going to be. The fact that what Zaid said was no different from what I myself had been saying for some time now appears to have escaped me. Maybe it was wishful thinking on my part. Maybe I was hoping that Zaid would be wrong and that the opposition would continue with its winning streak. Reality certainly eluded me over those ten days. Today, I have to grudgingly admit that Zaid was right and that I was delusional about the opposition being able to win the Bagan Pinang by-election.

Zaid, I concede defeat. It is over to you now. May you succeed in convincing the Pakatan Rakyat leaders that this is the beginning of the end unless they agree to address the core issues about what is fundamentally wrong with the so-called opposition coalition.

Most importantly, can you please convince PKR, DAP and PAS that the opposition coalition does not really exist other than in name only. And it will never exist until PKR, DAP and PAS are prepared to set aside their party interests in the interest of the coalition. Thus far, Pakatan Rakyat has failed to convince the voters that it is able to work as a coalition.

Remember, the voters did not vote FOR Pakatan Rakyat in the last general election. It voted AGAINST Barisan Nasional. And there is a big difference here. The voters have no love for Pakatan Rakyat. They just harbour hate for Barisan Nasional. Building your foundation on common hate rather than love is very dicey. It is not that the people want you. It is just that they do not want the other.

How, then, do your explain the opposition wins in the many by-elections since March last year? Well, most of those seats were already opposition seats. Pakatan Rakyat was merely defending its own seat. Even Kuala Terengganu, which was an Umno seat, had changed hands many times -- from Umno to Semangat 46 to Umno to PAS to Umno, and, now, back to PAS. So, Kuala Terengganu can’t really be regarded as an Umno stronghold. But when the opposition tries to grab a seat in an Umno stronghold that is another story altogether. You can no longer apply your defence strategy. You have to now go into attack mode. And this is what Pakatan Rakyat does not know how to do.

I can go on and on. But what I would say would merely be repeating what I had already said so many times. So let me stop here by repeating: let’s bury PKR, DAP and PAS. And let us see emerge in its place a true Pakatan Rakyat.

But for a true Pakatan Rakyat to be born there must be sacrifices made, many sacrifices. What PKR, DAP and PAS wants no longer matters. PKR, DAP and PAS have to forgo some of its wants. Needs must override wants. It is what Pakatan Rakyat has to do to convince the people that it is a true marriage born out of love that needs to prevail -- not a unity of hate, against Barisan Nasional.

Can PKR, DAP and PAS agree to this? If PKR, DAP and PAS are more important than Pakatan Rakyat then forget about the coalition and let each go their own way. Don’t lie to the voters that there is such a thing called a Pakatan Rakyat opposition coalition. Be honest with the people. Tell the people that you are offering them three separate and individual parties called PKR, DAP and PAS. And let the people decide if this is what they want. And if they do not then they will choose Barisan Nasional. Then, at least, as the Malays would say: puas hati.