Malaysian Mirror
By Kenny Gan
KUALA LUMPUR - Why would a person gamble? Putting aside those who gamble for the thrill of it, to gain something the fast and easy way without having to work hard for it is one answer.
The act of gambling means there is a chance of something to gain the easy way and something to lose as the outcome is beyond one’s direct control. But it need not be left entirely to lady luck as an appraisal of the odds will determine if one is a wise gambler or a foolish one.
What does gambling have to do with BN? Well, this how many describe BN’s or specifically Umno’s bid to put Anwar Ibrahim behind bars for a second time on another charge of sodomy. And pehaps, it is the most concise description.
casino.pngTo some, it is a high-stakes gamble because they could neutralize Pakatan Rakyat without having to carry out any painful reforms at all, which could well lose them their throne.
But how do the odds stack up? Has Umno gambled wisely or foolishly? Let’s examine.
Will PR break up without Anwar
Naturally, Umno hopes that by removing Anwar from the political scene, PR will break apart without him to provide the glue to hold the parties together.
Anwar continues to play an important diplomatic role between the parties. His ability to get the partners to sit down together to thrash out sticky problems and come out with a joint consensus is legendary. It may have saved PR when Umno was aggressively courting PAS over unity talks.
But would PR break up without Anwar? In the early days, may be. But as time passes, PR has shown remarkable resilience in staying together.
No doubt PR was formed with Anwar’s political skills, but it has now grown beyond one man’s personality and may no longer require his personal involvement either.
With each crisis that it overcomes, the coalition has become stronger. It may have now passed the critical newborn stage where survival depended on a nurturing mother.
For example, the PAS-DAP crisis in Kedah over the demolition of a pig abattoir was resolved by DAP national leaders talking directly to PAS Kedah leaders without Anwar having to intercede.
Selangor’s Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim has proved himself capable of being able to contain and diffuse numerous controversies involving PAS-DAP without Anwar having to step in.
Giving the enemy a lift to Putrajaya
Yet what may seem like a blatant injustice to Anwar supporters may well be just what the PR component parties need to rally around and further forget their differences. It is actually a good stand for them to unite behind and to reinforce their common distaste for the BN.
Therefore, Umno should tread carefully. When an action intended to weaken the opposition turns out that it may actually strengthen them instead, it is certainly time to pause and reconnoiter.
There is also another reason why a PR without Anwar may be even more united and willing to commit to each other.
With Anwar’s incarceration the Moghul splendor of Putrajaya – a distant dot a year ago – suddenly begins to appear tantalizingly near.
Because sending Anwar to jail on what most Malaysians perceive to be trumped-up sodomy charges will galvanize public opinion against BN.
This happened in 1998. In the 1999 election, Umno’s share of the Malay vote fell to 49%, a drop of 6% from the previous election and it was only the non-Malays who saved the BN then.
The BN’s share of the Malay vote is now a tenuous 55% and a drawn-out Anwar trial will push it below 50%.
anwar-saiful-2.gifThis will be calamitous for BN as given the present state of non-Malay political inclination, it risks being wiped out in the peninsula. Even Sabah and Sarawak may not be enough to help them stay in federal power.
For PR, the Anwar sympathy factor is truly a poignant booster that can help it overcome its current inability to win more of the rural Malay vote.
If ever there is a case of getting help from the enemy this is it!
Convince the public, not the judge
Of course, BN will not suffer a public backlash if it can present an ironclad case against Anwar and convince the public that no injustice was committed.
But let’s call a spade a spade. How many Malaysians really believe that the current sodomy charge against Anwar is a sincere attempt to get justice for alleged victim Saiful Bukhari Azlan? Very few and these would mostly be the hard-core BN supporters.
The charge of consensual sodomy itself smacks of selective prosecution as nobody else has been so charged, despite Malaysia having its fair share of homosexuals.
In any case, both independent medical reports - one from a private hospital and one from a government hospital - have confirmed that Saiful’s back orifice was not penetrated.
So the prosecutors’ biggest task will not be to convince the judge, but to convince a doubting Malaysian public.
Sadly, this is like the MACC trying to convince the country that it treats BN and PR politicians alike and equally.
If Anwar is convicted without an ironclad case, no amount of spinning in the mainstream media will persuade the public that he received a fair trial.
It did not work in 1998 when Mahathir had much tighter control of the press and the online world was still at its infancy. And it will not work now.
Foolishness or arrogance
It is an age-old adage that one should never gamble what one cannot afford to lose - no matter what the odds.
If the odds are stacked against you, then to do so is the height of foolishness. And this is the trap the Umno-BN may unwittingly be falling into by jailing Anwar - gambling its political power away because the odds are highly unfavorable and against it.
To others, it is not so much about the BN taking a foolish risk but an arrogant one. Only a party with 52 years of unbroken rule can believe it can do as it likes. Or try to ride roughshod over public opinion without fearing for its political survival at the next poll.
A desperate person may gamble if there is no other way but BN is not in that position. Therefore the BN should not feel compelled to act as if it is indeed desperate.
There are many other ways of staying in power. Malaysians would gladly re-elect them as long as they undertake reform. But it looks as if the hard work and commitment required to walk this road is beyond the Umno-BN. Instead, they prefer to take a gamble – the easy, short-cut way.
Truly, the BN should think again. Why not practice good governance and accountability? Why not stop abusing the institutions and clamp down on corruption? Why not reform discriminatory racial policies?
Won’t that take the wind out of the opposition’s sails? Is that a surer way to defend Putrajaya?
Will PR break up without Anwar
Naturally, Umno hopes that by removing Anwar from the political scene, PR will break apart without him to provide the glue to hold the parties together.
Anwar continues to play an important diplomatic role between the parties. His ability to get the partners to sit down together to thrash out sticky problems and come out with a joint consensus is legendary. It may have saved PR when Umno was aggressively courting PAS over unity talks.
But would PR break up without Anwar? In the early days, may be. But as time passes, PR has shown remarkable resilience in staying together.
No doubt PR was formed with Anwar’s political skills, but it has now grown beyond one man’s personality and may no longer require his personal involvement either.
With each crisis that it overcomes, the coalition has become stronger. It may have now passed the critical newborn stage where survival depended on a nurturing mother.
For example, the PAS-DAP crisis in Kedah over the demolition of a pig abattoir was resolved by DAP national leaders talking directly to PAS Kedah leaders without Anwar having to intercede.
Selangor’s Mentri Besar Khalid Ibrahim has proved himself capable of being able to contain and diffuse numerous controversies involving PAS-DAP without Anwar having to step in.
Giving the enemy a lift to Putrajaya
Yet what may seem like a blatant injustice to Anwar supporters may well be just what the PR component parties need to rally around and further forget their differences. It is actually a good stand for them to unite behind and to reinforce their common distaste for the BN.
Therefore, Umno should tread carefully. When an action intended to weaken the opposition turns out that it may actually strengthen them instead, it is certainly time to pause and reconnoiter.
There is also another reason why a PR without Anwar may be even more united and willing to commit to each other.
With Anwar’s incarceration the Moghul splendor of Putrajaya – a distant dot a year ago – suddenly begins to appear tantalizingly near.
Because sending Anwar to jail on what most Malaysians perceive to be trumped-up sodomy charges will galvanize public opinion against BN.
This happened in 1998. In the 1999 election, Umno’s share of the Malay vote fell to 49%, a drop of 6% from the previous election and it was only the non-Malays who saved the BN then.
The BN’s share of the Malay vote is now a tenuous 55% and a drawn-out Anwar trial will push it below 50%.
anwar-saiful-2.gifThis will be calamitous for BN as given the present state of non-Malay political inclination, it risks being wiped out in the peninsula. Even Sabah and Sarawak may not be enough to help them stay in federal power.
For PR, the Anwar sympathy factor is truly a poignant booster that can help it overcome its current inability to win more of the rural Malay vote.
If ever there is a case of getting help from the enemy this is it!
Convince the public, not the judge
Of course, BN will not suffer a public backlash if it can present an ironclad case against Anwar and convince the public that no injustice was committed.
But let’s call a spade a spade. How many Malaysians really believe that the current sodomy charge against Anwar is a sincere attempt to get justice for alleged victim Saiful Bukhari Azlan? Very few and these would mostly be the hard-core BN supporters.
The charge of consensual sodomy itself smacks of selective prosecution as nobody else has been so charged, despite Malaysia having its fair share of homosexuals.
In any case, both independent medical reports - one from a private hospital and one from a government hospital - have confirmed that Saiful’s back orifice was not penetrated.
So the prosecutors’ biggest task will not be to convince the judge, but to convince a doubting Malaysian public.
Sadly, this is like the MACC trying to convince the country that it treats BN and PR politicians alike and equally.
If Anwar is convicted without an ironclad case, no amount of spinning in the mainstream media will persuade the public that he received a fair trial.
It did not work in 1998 when Mahathir had much tighter control of the press and the online world was still at its infancy. And it will not work now.
Foolishness or arrogance
It is an age-old adage that one should never gamble what one cannot afford to lose - no matter what the odds.
If the odds are stacked against you, then to do so is the height of foolishness. And this is the trap the Umno-BN may unwittingly be falling into by jailing Anwar - gambling its political power away because the odds are highly unfavorable and against it.
To others, it is not so much about the BN taking a foolish risk but an arrogant one. Only a party with 52 years of unbroken rule can believe it can do as it likes. Or try to ride roughshod over public opinion without fearing for its political survival at the next poll.
A desperate person may gamble if there is no other way but BN is not in that position. Therefore the BN should not feel compelled to act as if it is indeed desperate.
There are many other ways of staying in power. Malaysians would gladly re-elect them as long as they undertake reform. But it looks as if the hard work and commitment required to walk this road is beyond the Umno-BN. Instead, they prefer to take a gamble – the easy, short-cut way.
Truly, the BN should think again. Why not practice good governance and accountability? Why not stop abusing the institutions and clamp down on corruption? Why not reform discriminatory racial policies?
Won’t that take the wind out of the opposition’s sails? Is that a surer way to defend Putrajaya?
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