KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia is not ready for a third force in politics. Analysts said the prospect of Zaid Ibrahim leading the third force is also unlikely to bolster its growth.
The third force, comprising bloggers and leading figures in civil society groups, is looking to pull the former law minister into their camp in a bid to add weight to its light presence. Zaid is expected to quit PKR by the end of this month after a disastrous fallout with the party's top leadership.
According to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaya political analyst, Professor Shamsul Amri, Malaysia's political history has shown that it is not accommodative of a third movement.
He said the excitement around a third force often wither away fast.
He cited the 1987 Umno crisis when juggernaut Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah left the ruling Malay party Umno to form Semangat 46 in 1989 after losing to former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad in the contest for Umno's supreme post.
Razaleigh, who was the finance minister at that time, lost only by a razor thin deficit.
Political pundits felt Mahathir's narrow win signaled a strong support towards Razaleigh and the formation of his new party was hailed as the start of a genuinely capable third force.
The excitement, however, was short lived as Semangat 46, pressured by strained relations with the opposition, saw its members and key figures returning to Umno. The party was subsequently disbanded in 1996 and Razaleigh too rejoined Umno.
"(So) I don't think having a third force around will work in Malaysia.. third force in Malaysia is (almost) non-existence," he told FMT, adding that Zaid is a "nobody" without the support of either Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat.
Eroding popularity
UCSI lecturer and political analyst Ong Kian Ming believes that while Zaid has all the necessary qualities to lead a third force and his progressive ideals appeal to those who make up the movement, his recent tirades against PKR have exposed his poor acumen which may hurt the group.
"On paper he is the right person but then again Zaid is the type that its either his way or the highway and the characters in the third force are also uncompromising," he said pointing out the possible of personality conflicts between Zaid and leaders of the third force.
He noted that Zaid's popularity is eroding among opposition supporters following his constant attack against PKR's top leadership.
Zaid has claimed that he has been victimised by PKR supremo Anwar Ibrahim who is said to favour his right-hand man, vice-president Azmin Ali, for the deputy presidential post.
The perceived failure to provide solid evidence to back his allegations of malpractices in the party's ongoing direct elections have also dented Zaid's image among his adoring followers.
Many fear he will drag this dark cloud into the third force should he lead the movement said Ong.
And this could be detrimental and repel support towards them, added the political analyst.
Group co-ordinator, lawyer and blogger, Haris Ibrahim is planning to lead the group into multi-cornered fights in up to 30 of the 222 parliamentary seats which are being held or are to be contested by PKR in a move that may split the votes and dent the party's effort to lead Pakatan to Putrajaya.
Ong believes that the group's chances are bright in urban areas, where a more liberal electorate is growing more disillusioned by the brand of politics espoused by both Pakatan and BN.
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