BN admits two-thirds unlikely, regaining states possible

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 — Barisan Nasional leaders have conceded that they would likely fail again to regain its two-thirds parliamentary majority in the coming polls but are confident of wresting a few states back from Pakatan Rakyat.

The leaders told The Malaysian Insider that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s prediction in a Bloomberg report yesterday was not off the mark, but claimed that the former premier’s remarks were likely made to encourage BN and stop its leaders from being overly lax and comfortable in their places.

When contacted, many predicted that BN was slowly making inroads with voters and that several factors showed that the ruling coalition could likely recapture states like Kedah, Selangor and even Kelantan, a known PAS stronghold for decades.

When contacted by The Malaysian Insider, People’s Progressive Party (PPP) president Datuk M. Kayveas said that BN would not face much difficulty in recapturing most of the states it had lost in Elections 2008, save for one state.

“I think it is more than just two states that we can recapture, maybe except for one, but the others will return to BN,” he said, but did not reveal which state he was referring to.

Kayveas predicted that it was highly likely that status quo would be maintained in parliament where BN would still be in power but without holding its customary two-thirds majority.

“I believe BN’s seats in Parliament will increase but probably not to the level of a two-thirds majority. This is because in any politically mature society, obtaining two-thirds majority is uncommon.

“Look at the political scenarios of other countries these days... but because we have been so used to having two-thirds majority for so long (since Merdeka), we assume that BN will continue to have it,” he said,

He added that it was a sufficient for BN if the ruling coalition managed to secure at least 50 per cent or up to 65 per cent of seats in Parliament, just like it had after Elections 2008.

“To me, if this performance is maintained, it is already a satisfying victory for any government,” he said.

Kayveas was among one of the many top BN leaders who were badly defeated in the March 2008 general election.

In an interview with Bloomberg this week, Dr Mahathir said BN was capable of wresting one or two states from PR in the 13th general election because, he said, the opposition was in disarray.

However, he added that BN would likely fail to regain its two-thirds majority in Parliament, which would enable them to rule the country with a comfortable majority.

Dr Mahathir’s prediction comes on the heels of intense speculation that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is also BN chairman, would be calling for snap polls as early as the first quarter of next year.

In the Bloomberg report, the country’s longest serving prime minister also described Najib as a “vast improvement” over his predecessor Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

Umno Supreme Council member Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah agreed with Dr Mahathir’s assertion but claimed the veteran leader had made his remarks as he did not want BN component parties to be too comfortable and overly happy with the recent positive changes in voter sentiment.

“I view this as a moderate and careful statement,” said the Deputy Higher Education Minister, adding however that BN was confident of its chances in recapturing two states.

The two states, he said, were Kedah and Selangor.

“Despite this, I am not saying that we cannot recapture Penang and Kelantan... the opportunity is there but the confidence would come from our chances in Kedah and Selangor,” he said.

The Temerloh MP however claimed that BN could still regain its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority and listed out three factors that would influence this – the ongoing troubles in PKR, BN’s improved popularity and Najib’s policies.

“On BN’s increasing popularity, I find that Umno, as the core party, has begun recapturing Malay support while the other BN component parties have also managed to settle all their internal issues. There is also the upcoming BN charter that will be passed during our convention next week.

“All these will return the people’s confidence in BN and we will regain our two-thirds majority in Parliament,” he claimed.

Umno Information chief Datuk Ahmad Maslan thanked Dr Mahathir for his remarks, describing it as a “reminder” to BN leaders to work harder.

He added however that despite Dr Mahathir’s prediction, BN would continue working towards regaining its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority and trounce PR in all states.

“We do not know when the elections will be called but the increase in voter support towards us was proven in the Galas, Batu Sapi, Hulu Selangor and Bagan Pinang by-elections,” he said.

Ahmad added that while BN should delight in PKR’s troubles, it would not bank on the weaknesses of other parties to strengthen its own voter support.

“Our strengths should not be because of the weaknesses in other parties but in our own capabilities,” he reminded.

When contacted, MCA central committee member Datuk Ti Lian Ker also agreed with Dr Mahathir’s prediction, pointing out that recent events had shown a shift in voter support towards the BN.

He told The Malaysian Insider however that there was still a “leftover sentiment” from the March 2008 general election, which would likely result in BN’s failure to recapture its two-thirds parliamentary majority in the next polls.

“However, there is definitely a shift and the people are slowly beginning to realise that PR, as an alternative government, is not very feasible. Their flaws and weaknesses are very glaring of late,” he said.

Central among the many weaknesses in PR that would likely benefit BN, said Ti, were the ongoing leadership issues plaguing PKR.

“It is PKR that provides the comfort level for all three parties in PR, especially to sway the votes of the fence-sitters, but today that comfort is slowly diminishing and PKR has shown that it is not a serious party. It is not a force to be reckoned with,” he said,.

Ti also agreed that BN could possibly score a surprising win in states like Selangor, Kedah and even Kelantan, come the next general election.

For Perak and Penang however, he said the sympathy factor towards PR would be too difficult to secure a BN win.

“Selangor is quite possible because it is a commercial center and people will realise that at the end of the day, BN is still the rightful and correct government.

“For Kelantan, it is hard to say but (Mentri Besar) Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat has been around for too many years and there are many issues that have been swept under the carpet and are now resurfacing.

“In Kedah, it is possible because the PAS government there has shown that it is more extreme that Umno in many ways,” he said.

In Perak, Ti noted that PR could still bank on sympathy votes due to the infamous power grab by BN last year.

“It will take some time to convince. Similarly in Penang, the Chinese community there still support (Penang Chief Minister Lim) Guan Eng... it is the sentiment towards DAP as the underdog,” he claimed.

MIC Central Working Committee member S. Murugessan warned that Dr Mahathir’s prediction should not be treated lightly, in view of the political tsunami in the 12th general election.

“Whatever one might think about Dr Mahathir’s political legacy, one has to give due weight to his political predictions.

“He predicted that BN might lose its two-thirds majority during Elections 2008 but most dismissed him easily.

“BN should take his assessment as a starting point and start working from there.

“If BN can deliver on its promise of good governance & show its willingness to listen to the people, then the votes will come in naturally,” he said.