Pundit predicts status quo in by-elections

By Stephanie Sta Maria - Free Malaysia Today

KUALA LUMPUR: PAS would win the Galas by-election in Kelantan while Barisan Nasional would retain its Batu Sapi parliamentary seat in Sabah, said a political observer.

However, UCSI University's economics and policy science lecturer Ong Kian Ming noted that Galas would see a tough fight, with Chinese voters steering victory in PAS' direction.

The Galas state seat has 11, 553 voters, made up of Malays (7,125 or 62%), Chinese (2,317 or 20%), Indians (185 or 5.6%) and Orang Asli (1,889 or 9.5%).

In the 2008 general election, only 45% of the Chinese voters had backed BN.

“We will see the same behaviour among the Chinese voters as we did during the Bukit Gantang and Hulu Selangor by-elections,” Ong said.

Ong also touched on Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah's role in Galas and indicated that the Kelantan prince was right in declining to contest the seat. Razaleigh, who is popularly known as Ku Li, is BN's election director for Galas.

“Past election results have shown that while Ku Li garnered high votes at the parliamentary level, he didn't win as many at the state level,” the academic said. “I'm sure he's well aware of this which is why he chose not to run for this seat.”

Ku Li has been the MP of Gua Musang – which includes the Galas state seat - since 1969 and remains an influential figure in the state. However, he only obtained 3,826 votes in Galas during the 2008 election compared to his PAS opponent who won 4,143 votes.

Ong also pointed out that Razaleigh's backing for the PAS Kelantan state government in its claim for oil royalty would be sticky point in the campaign.

“Voters will be waiting to see whether Ku Li will continue defending his stand or whether BN will reverse its original decision in order to secure a win,” he said.

“The result of this by-election will indicate the extent of his influence in the state and the ability of (Prime Minister) Najib (Tun Razak) in sustaining the feel-good factor among the Malays,” he added.

The Galas seat fell vacant on Sept 27 following the death of PAS' Che Hashim Sulaima who defeated BN's Saufi Deraman with a majority of 646 votes.

The by-election on Nov 4 would see a straight fight between BN candidate Abdul Aziz Yusof and PAS candidate Dr Zulkefli Mohamad.

No swing in Batu Sapi

In predicting a sizable margin of victory for BN in the Batu Sapi by-election, Ong said there was unlikely to be a swing among the Chinese voters as expected in Galas. In the previous election, BN clinched 40% of Chinese votes.

Ong also viewed DAP's willingness to make way for PKR to field its candidate for the seat as a favour that it would call on during the Sarawak elections.

“DAP will use this as a leverage point when it comes to negotiating seats during the Sarawak elections,” he explained. “But of course there are other reasons for DAP not contesting this seat.”

“One of them is the fact that this isn't a Chinese majority seat and the other, is that the party doesn't want to divert its resources from Sarawak into this area,” he added.

According to him, the only question in the Batu Sapi by-election is whether SAPP would win more votes than PKR. If this happens, he said, then the opposition would find itself in a pickle.

“SAPP will make a claim to contest a larger number of state seats in the next election. SAPP will give the opposition a choice: either give it more seats or it will aligned itself with BN,” he said.

The Batu Sapi by-election, which would also be held on Nov 4, was called following the death of its incumbent Edmund Chong in a road accident on Oct 9.

In the 2008 general election, Chong had won the seat by beating independent candidate Chung Kwong Wing by a majority of 3,708 votes.

The by-election would be a three-cornered fight, with BN fielding Chong's widow Linda Tsen against PKR's Ansari Abdullah and SAPP president Yong Teck Lee.