Stakes are high for both sides

By Anil Netto - Free Malaysia Today

COMMENT Pakatan Rakyat faces an uphill task in the remaining days of the [Hulu Selangor by-election] campaign, I am told by a grassroots campaigner from Pas, who spent a couple of days in the outlying areas of Hulu Selangor.
A DAP campaigner, on the other hand, was a bit more sanguine: “I think we can do it. But margin not big.”
At this point, the Pas campaigner thinks Barisan has the edge among the kampung voters and, if things remain as they are, he thinks the BN could clinch victory.

Contrary to perception, he says Pas has the most human resources and machinery on the ground. He estimated that of the total Pakatan machinery in Hulu Selangor, Pas alone accounted for 80 per cent. “We are mostly in the outlying and rural areas and the kampungs, whereas the other parties tend to focus in the more accessible areas.”
He said the kampung folk relied a lot on mainstream media propaganda. “They have been bombarded with such stuff and it’s difficult to sway them.” Some of them have also been taken up by Najib Tun Razak’s talk of revamping the economy. He thinks that the personal attacks on PRK candidate Zaid Ibrahim “may” sway some voters.
At the moment, he thinks both sides have about 30 per cent each of hardcore voters in the kampungs in the bag. Much will depend on how they influence the fence-sitters.
Plenty at stake
Much is at stake. “If PKR loses this time, it means several things,” observes a political analyst. “Among them that there can be no change unless the structural contradictions of the BN system are allowed to unravel by themselves.” Meaning, Pakatan will have to hope that the BN or Umno implodes.
If Najib is overtaken by [Umno deputy president] Muhyiddin [Yassin], then the decline may come faster as the BN can only move further to the right as a result, he adds.
A defeat for Zaid would mean PKR would have run its course and the party may find it difficult to pick up the pieces especially in the aftermath of all those defections.
On the other hand, a BN defeat would spell trouble for the BN system of power-sharing. It would suggest that support for the component parties (apart from Umno) and the seat-sharing formula has collapsed and MCA and MIC candidates would in future be hard-pressed to win in other seats.
Worse for the two parties, Umno may even lay claim on some of their traditional seats. It would also be a psychological blow ahead of the Sibu [parliamentary] by-election [in May].
Even though specific issues do not appear to have been fore-fronted in this campaign, this by-election has implications that extend well beyond Hulu Selangor.