The Indian votes in Bagan Pinang will be one of the crucial factors which will determine the outcome of the Oct 11 by-election. It is clear that the community and its leaders are divided and all these factions are in Bagan Pinang.
The general opinion is that BN candidate Isa Samad will be able to secure most of the Indian votes because of his past services to the community in the state and his excellent personal relationship with key Indian leaders in the Teluk Kemang parliamentary constituency.
During his time, Isa was one of the few Umno leaders who behaved as menteri besar for all races. With his simplistic and pleasant disposition, Isa had the advantage of being individually connected to many local Indian leaders in the state.
For example, former MIC state exco members M Muthupalaniappan and M Sundram although not in good terms with the present leadership of MIC, enjoy an excellent relationship with Isa and are said to be actively campaigning for him.
Another example is S Karuppusamy, an active former MIC branch chief in Teluk Kemang who left the party to join PKR due to differences with the MIC leadership in the division and state. However, because of his personal relationship with Isa he is now campaigning for Isa although he has not returned to MIC or any other BN party.
Despite his personal grievances with the MIC leadership, even former deputy president S Subramaniam has decided to join the campaign trail because of Isa.
Apart from the support of Indian political leaders, Isa is said to have considerable influence among the local Indian community as well.
In view of this, it is certain that Pakatan Rakyat parties will have a tough time in convincing the Indian voters to vote against Isa.
Samy Vellu leads the charge
Leading the Indian political charge is MIC president S Samy Vellu, who is all out to prove that he and his party are still popular and relevant. Fresh from his successful bid to get most of his men elected into key positions in the party, Samy Vellu is desperate to show that he is not a liability to BN.
However, Samy Vellu is said to be receiving a cold response from other BN component parties and the local Indian community.
Even before the BN candidate was named for Bagan Pinang, Samy Vellu visited the constituency several times. However, sources said there were several occasions where Samy Vellu was heckled and some of his visits and ceramahs were boycotted by local Indian voters.
If BN wins the seat, Samy Vellu will announce that Indians have returned to BN because of MIC and his leadership. His advantage seems to be that most of the Indian political factions outside MIC are also working for BN and therefore at the end of the day if BN wins no one will be able to claim who really brought in the Indian votes.
Another key Indian leader working for BN is S Sothinathan who was recently defeated at the MIC polls for the post of deputy president. He is the former MP of Teluk Kemang, which encompasses Bagan Pinang as one of its five state constituencies. Although he has fallen out with Samy Vellu, as a former MP of two terms, his involvement in the campaign will definitely be an advantage for Isa and BN.
Former MIC Youth chief S Vigneswaran, who has announced that he will not be returning to MIC, is also campaigning for Isa through the BN supporters club. The Tamil media recently reported that Sothinathan and Vigneswaran have joined forces to campaign for Isa.
Then we have PPP, another component party of BN divided between the factions of M Kayveas and T Murugiah. Both factions are working separately in favour of BN.
The Indian Progressive Front (IPF), a party founded by the late MG Pandithan, is also said to have some following among Indian voters in Bagan Pinang. Although the party is today divided into some four factions, the advantage for BN is that all these four factions are still supporting BN.
New party Makkal Sakthi Party headed by former Hindraf coordinator RS Thanenthiran has also announced support for BN in the Bagan Pinang by-election. The party is expected to be launched by Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak on Oct 10, a day ahead of the polls.
Therefore, as far as Indian votes in Bagan Pinang is concerned the advantage of BN is that all these different Indian factions although at loggerheads between themselves are united in supporting BN.
Furthermore, unlike other by-elections faced by Umno, Bagan Pinang is different in that there is a candidate out to prove that he is still relevant to the party and who sees this by-election as a second lease of life. Isa is determined to use this by-election to erase the stains spilled on his political career during the last Umno elections where he was suspended from the party for money politics.
Hindraf trio back Pakatan
However, when it comes to Indian votes there are also several factors stacked against BN.
Although, most of the Indian political groups are campaigning for BN, what these groups are doing is merely to show the BN leadership that they are with them and that they are working hard on the ground to attract Indian votes. By doing so, they hope to catch the attention of the BN leadership and prove that they are relevant.
However, to what extent these various groups will be really able to convince and bring in the Indian votes is doubtful. Although Najib's government has shown some positive response towards the plight of the Indian community, there have been no specific programmes or schemes to help the community.
What Najib has done so far is to reach out to the various Indian political and NGO factions by dealing with them directly. By doing so, he has in fact weakened MIC and has politically divided the Indian community further into smaller factions. His decision to launch a non-BN Indian based party is unprecedented in the history of the ruling coalition.
In the given circumstances there are also various issues which will drive the Indian votes away from BN. Topping the list is the cow-head issue and the demolition of Kampong Buah Pala. Although the general opinion is that the Pakatan Rakyat government in Penang could have saved Kampung Buah Pala, no one can deny that it was the BN-Gerakan government that sold the disputed land for a mediocre price thereby planting the first seed to the problem.
The Indian community has also lost faith in MIC and its leadership since the party elections in September. They are also unhappy with the BN leadership for still not effecting a leadership transition in MIC despite the failed leadership of Samy Vellu. Therefore, MIC and its splinter groups may not be able to attract the Indian voters that easily.
Another advantage for Pakatan is that three former Hindraf ISA detainees are campaigning for them. They are DAP state rep M Manoharan, V Ganapathy Rao and T Vasanthakumar. The Indian community generally feels that they owe an obligation to the five Hindraf detainees for their sacrifices to the community. Therefore the campaign of these three leaders could bring some Indian votes for the PAS candidate.
As for P Uthayakumar, he is still considered a powerful force in the Indian community for leading the Hindraf battle. However, he has called on Indian voters to abstain from voting because BN and Pakatan have both failed to help the community.
However convincing his arguments may be for such a stand, whether it will succeed in a hotly contested by-election such as Bagan Pinang is doubtful.
Uthayakumar's stand will also indirectly help BN to secure more Indian votes and the Hindraf leader knows this.
We also should not forget that there are also other popular and powerful Indian leaders in DAP and PKR who will be able to convince the Indian voters in Bagan Pinang. Then there is thePAS Indian supporters club which is also working the ground.
Last but not least, we cannot ignore the popularity of Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim as far as the Indian community is concerned. His promise to abolish the NEP and create an equalitarian Malaysian society coupled with his oratory skills and charisma will surely bag votes.
Test case for Najib
Apart from this, the recent statement by Samy Vellu that the party's education arm MIED and its university Aimst are NGOs set up by him in his personal capacity and therefore do not belong to MIC has caused an uproar in the Indian community.
MIC sources in Teluk Kemang pointed out that there is much concern among the Indian voters in Bagan Pinang about Samy Vellu's statement, while opposition parties are also harping on the issue.
Bagan Pinang will be the first test case for Najib and the BN leadership to see if they can succeed in bringing back the Indian votes to BN by applying the 'divide and rule' policy. By encouraging many political factions to be created outside MIC appears to be the BN policy of the day to attract Indian voters.
With the victory of Isa in Bagan Pinang, BN may make this 'policy' a permanent feature in future campaigns.
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