Victory... but at what cost?

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 30 — The justification for naming Datuk Isa Samad as the Umno candidate for the vacant Bagan Pinang state seat has started.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the party was paying heed to the wishes of the constituents, putting people first — pinching a line from the prime minister’s mantra.

In the days ahead, other Umno leaders will argue that Isa has already paid the price for being found guilty of greasing the palms of party delegates in the Umno elections five years ago. They will note that he has suffered enough as a political leper and point out that he took his punishment without much protest.

Others may even put a different spin on the second coming of Isa by saying that it shows what a forgiving political party Umno is, an organisation that has a track record of giving second chances to those who strayed. (Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Tan Sri Rahim Thamby Chik, Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib, Datuk Zakaria Deros, Datuk Rais Yatim, Khairy Jamaluddin, Datuk Khir Toyo, Datuk Ahmad Ismail, etc.)

But few will venture to offer the real reason why Isa was picked. He was the only candidate who could guarantee them what Umno desires most — a resounding victory. Not any victory, a thumping show over PAS.

Party strategists believe that the Pakatan Rakyat alliance is fraying and the coalition will be pressured further if Umno/Barisan Nasional wins big in Bagan Pinang. They reason that every by-election victory since March 8, 2008 has been like a steroid boost for Pakatan Rakyat, buying time for leaders of PAS, DAP and PKR who have yet to work out a common platform.

At the same time, every defeat suffered by Umno/BN in the nine by-elections held since March 2008 has sapped the morale of ruling coalition members, sowing doubt on whether Datuk Seri Najib Razak and gang can reconnect BN with the Malaysian voter.

Najib and Muhyiddin appreciate that Isa’s return to active politics could complicate the Umno dynamics in Negri Sembilan with the enmity between the former mentri besar and the current chief executive of the state, Datuk Mohamad Hassan, an open secret.

But that is a problem for another time. Moreover, both these individuals may not figure prominently in any executive role when the next general election is held.

Former corporate figure Mohamad Hassan is viewed as an Abdullah Ahmad Badawi appointee and has not endeared himself to the warlords in Umno by appointing his brother to a senior position in the state Umno hierarchy.

Isa, while popular in Umno circles, is not likely to be in the running for the MB’s position, party officials tell The Malaysian Insider.

But those permutations can wait. What Umno needs now is a popular local candidate who can get the fickle Umno election machinery to work in unison and who can reach out to the non-Malay community, seared and singed by national issues.

Umno/BN’s Azman Mohammad Noor won the seat in Election 2008 by some 2,000 votes and Umno leaders believe that Isa will easily increase the margin of victory.

They believe that the fallout from his involvement in money politics will only last for a few months. By the time the next general election is held, all the barbs about Umno being a party without a moral compass will be forgotten.

Short-term thinking? Perhaps. But for a party which has not been able to emerge victorious in Peninsular Malaysia since Election 2008, long-term strategy is a luxury it believes it cannot indulge in right now.