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Friday, 10 April 2009

Essay: Playing Smart Against Najib

So, here’s an article I was paid RM 10 million to write, ahaha :P it’s the one I’ve been talking about for so long, and it’s already a little outdated. But let’s start from here, and take it from there :)

Najib is an easy man to hate.

Truth be told, I don’t trust him any more than the next Malaysiakini reader.

Our job as commentators however, should always involve scrutinising the big picture, identifying where the truly important pivots of change are, and mapping out the road ahead. We must constantly seek the best strategy for long term success, and work for change in the ways that will make the most difference.

I feel that in the first week of his reign, too many of us have taken the easy way out as far as criticising our new prime minister goes.

This is understandable; many are angry today as we continue to see justice falling short in the Altantuya case, continuous governmental interference in the quest for truth in the Kugan murder, Disneyland and submarine corruption scandals not dealt with, and so on.

These and a history of bad reputations have made many of us view Najib’s first few actions will extreme cynicism, and dismissed his tactics as disingenuous.

I don’t actually think such cynicism or dismissals are misplaced, but I do fear Najib’s opponents are underestimating his recent tactics a little.


Najib’s first victories

Najib’s relatively easy ride to assuming the highest office of the land was his first coup. While the nation was distracted by the three by-elections, Najib sailed through easily to his swearing-in ceremony, finally achieving what he as yearned for for decades.

Had this been done at a time where Pakatan and their supporters did not have their attention and energies fully distracted by three elections, the protest at Najib’s impending appointment as PM could have involved nation-wide outcries to the point of street demonstrations - quite justifiable given the unprecedented amount of scandal which taints Najib in the eyes of the whole world.

Yet, there he successfully sits now - having outmanouvered his opponents and evaded all serious opposition to his appointment to arguably the only political post that really matters in the land. A post from which so very much can be controlled.

Many speculated on a return to heavy handed Mahathirism, complete with clampdowns and the iron first.

Najib surprised many by going in the complete opposite direction. In what Nik Nazmi termed triangulation, Najib took more than a few pages from Pakatan’s book when he released ISA detainees, and placed unexpected emphasis on national unity, free media, and all of those other good things.

The hardcore pro-Pakatan and anti-BN elements immediately crucified him, bending over backwards to accuse him of all manner of insincerity and opportunism.

Again, I do not necessarily disagree with such views, but are such attacks the right strategy to employ at this juncture, when some may perhaps see him as offering olive branches?

It may seem easy to do so, and surely there is a temptation to go on the offensive after convincing victories in the peninsular by-elections.

Without any statistical data, I cannot say for sure how the general, middle ground public truly views Najib’s “reforms.” I’m sure some buy it, and some don’t. The majority may lean to the latter, but I truly do not know.

I have seen enough from Najib however, within his first week, to feel that it would be foolhardy for Pakatan and its supporters to casually dismiss Najib’s moves, and expect that the public will never fall for them. Voting electorates are traditionally fickle.

I think a better precautionary tack for Pakatan to take is to prepare seriously for the possibility - no matter how remote - that Najib may be willing to initiate some manner of reforms in order to survive politically, and that these tactics may pay off at the ballot box some day.

Pirating political products

The first reason for this is that we must never, ever underestimate the instinct for survival, and the degree to which it may influence one’s actions.

Whoever is advising Najib has thus far provided a very accurate, in my view, reading of the Malaysian political landscape.

Najib is singing Pakatan’s tune precisely because his circle has (finally) seen, much as we have a long time ago, that the rakyat truly hates the ISA; that we disagree with the Perak usurption of power; that we expect a media that exercises the function it is supposed to; and so on. In other words, he is not completely blind as to what issues voters care about.

While we do not expect any BN animal to change its spots too drastically, we must be prepared for the possibility that under a new PM, they might - as a contingency, if nothing else.

While it is good to have a successful product to sell, piracy by competitors can cause serious damage to one’s business, and this is what Pakatan should be wary of. Constant improvement and refinement of the products we market must be the norm.

We have spoken at length, and I think accurately, of the increase in voter sophistication. This may be, however, a sword that cuts both ways.

It is unwise for Pakatan to rely on anti-BN sentiment alone to carry it all the way to Putrajaya. If this were the case, the unlikely but ultimately still possible reform of BN will cut the legs from under Pakatan and deflate its momentum considerably.

I feel that middle ground voters, the kind of which have swung so violently back and forth in areas such as Bukit Gantang (evidenced by the great variation in voting patterns over the last few elections), will not appreciate purely negative campaigning.

This means that non-stop character assassinations against Najib regardless of whether he is saying positive or negative things is likely to grow old and stale after a while.

This is not to say that we must not chide and criticise the PM when he does or says something wrong. All mistakes and rakyat-unfriendly statements must be torn apart mercilessly.

That said, we must not end up the boy who cried wolf. Our harshest criticism will carry the most weight with middle ground voters when we reserve it only for the times when our leaders truly act and talk particularly badly.

To lash out blindly with vicious attacks even when the PM makes gestures, no matter how small, in the right direction, runs the risk of making his opponents look petty, and commentators prejudiced. Such a situation would see us experience a deficit of credibility.

Give peace a chance?

Does this mean we should give Najib ‘a chance?’

I have no high hopes for the man and his premiereship. Nonetheless, I cannot pretend to see in the heart of any man. We only have his actions to judge him by.

For someone who has spent hours upon hours persuading others that Anwar Ibrahim has the capacity to change, that time can transform a man, I find hard to readily dismiss out of hand that another person - no matter what my personal dislike for him may be - is incapable of the same.

Similarly, I ask myself how I would hope Najib supporters might react (in an ideal world) should it have been Anwar instead who was sworn in as Prime Minister last week (an even more ideal world).

The answers to such questions should perhaps guide our current attitudes and actions with regards to Najib, Prime Minister of Malaysia.

And what of his personal scandals?

I think there should be no let up on the pressing questions with regards to kickbacks on arms deals, and corruption cases of the like. Irregularities remain unanswered, and so much of the rakyat’s money remains unaccounted for.

As for the Altantuya case?

Deep in my heart, as in so many other Malaysian hearts I suspect, I find it hard to absolve Najib or those close to him from some involvement in the murder. The facts of the matter simply do not make sense otherwise.

Sadly however, there remains no solid evidence as of yet to connect him to the case. Like many, I hoped to see that infamous photograph. I hoped that Musa Safri would be called to testify, as he should. These are things we should continue to pursue in the name of justice; but if we haven’t seen them yet, we must concurrently prepare for the possibility that we may never.

What energy we can spend on this should be spent on finding what further evidence exists that can shed light on what truly happened in the vicious murder of Altantuya, and perhaps less on making accusations that look increasingly difficult to substantiate, true though they may or may not be.

For without such evidence, we can sadly no more convict Najib that we could convict any man who is innocent until proven guilty.


What Pakatan needs to do

What are the best options available to Pakatan now?

While I did not fully agree with them at the time, I find myself having more sympathy now with some of the positions taken by people who were pro-Pakatan, but against the planned September 16th takeover.

They reasoned then that Pakatan should instead concentrate on governing the states they controlled, and look forward to the next general elections.

In my view, this now seems wise - in light of practical considerations, if not of moral or ethical ones.

Najib’s ascension was soon followed by consolidation. Umno members are far too exhausted from the infighting seen over the last year or so, and are desperate for strong leadership, which Najib - formerly renowned more for being eminently insipid more than anything else - is now in a position to provide.

His current standing is not fully unassailable, but the present dynamics of power probably make any attempt at takeover by defection highly unfeasible; certainly much more so now than in the lead up to September of last year.

I have written before as well on how expecting politicians not to politick, merely out of goodwill and sense of national responsibility (think Anas Zubedy), may be just a little naive.

I stand by such views, but also admit that we find ourselves in a different position today than we did a few months ago.

If we accept the assumption that Najib will be difficult to remove short of a dissolution of parliament, we must thus adjust our strategies accordingly.

As such, it would be timely for Pakatan to postpone any immediate takeover plans, and refocus their energy on the administration of their states, as well as on on playing the role of an effective opposition at the federal level (that oft mentioned shadow cabinet couldn’t possibly come at a better time).

At the end of the day, what will really matter is who the public perceives to govern better - it’s as simple as that.

Today, I believe a member of the public will still be hard pressed to answer convincingly the question: “What is different or better under your new Pakatan state government? What have their major achievements been?”

While I do believe Pakatan-held states have done a better job than their predecessors, it is imperative for them to overcome the honeymoon phase, and work harder in ensuring that by this time next year latest, any resident of their state can shoot of at least three to five answers to the question above convincingly and without hesitation.

Crime, improvement of infrastructure, and other basic, daily life things would be a great place to start.

On the national level, it is right that Pakatan continue to press the government at every turn. 13 released? Demand the closure of Kamunting. Gestures towards press freedom? Protest the ridiculous banning of Merdeka Review at the PM’s press conference.

Push every issue for the betterment of the rakyat, and demand more and more accountability at every opportunity. Do this well, and the rakyat will see the benefits of checks and balances as well as healthy political competition.

The Pakatan-BN competition should continue as vigorously as possible, as they try to outdo each other in terms of integrity and service to the rakyat. That is how a democracy is supposed to work, and that is how we go about creating a better Malaysia.


Only one opportunity for Najib

As for Najib? Well, you can talk the talk (as can anyone with a professional public relations team), now comes time to see you walk the walk.

We will not be content with 13 releases or mere lip service. Unless we see the repeal of the ISA, the Printing Presses and Publication Act, the Emergency Ordinance and so on very soon indeed, we will be forced to conclude that you are jerking us around, and have no serious intention to reform. No excuses will be tolerated.

I don’t really see how you will reconcile 1Malaysia with your party’s Ketuanan Melayu, but you are welcome to try. If you fail to go beyond rhetoric, I reckon your political future will be short.

You will continue to be hounded on your corruption scandals, as will all those under you. You have a unique opportunity to come clean and clean house, failing which, you will again likely be shown the door. Don’t try to go quiet for a while, and then sneak in some sketchy deals when you think no one will still be watching.

We will always be watching.

Lastly, if you’re anywhere near serious about turning over a new leaf, give us back Perak. Bukit Gantang is the last nail in that particular coffin - no one outside your party (and plenty within) can possibly justify this ridiculous usurpation of power.

We’ll accept some of your rhetoric with an open heart Mr. Prime Minister, out of basic human decency; but make deed match word, or see your party meet extinction very, very soon.

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