The
BN now has firm control of Perak and is working to regain some of its
lost influence among voters, having allocated resources into projects to
win back support of the people. With the Chinese vote firmly supporting
the opposition, the deciding votes in any future election rest with the
ethnic Malays, not because they hold a majority among the populace
(they represent just over 50%), but because their support is most split
between the ruling coalition and the opposition.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KUALA LUMPUR 000107
SIPDIS
FOR EAP/MTS AND INR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2020
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KJUS, MY
SUBJECT: POWER STRUGGLES IN PERAK: RULING COALITION WORKING HARD TO REGAIN VOTERS' SUPPORT
REF: A. 09 KUALA LUMPUR 342 -- PANDEMONIUM IN PERAK STATE ASSEMBLY
B. 09 KUALA LUMPUR 78 -- NAJIB LEADS TAKEOVER OF PERAK
C. KUALA LUMPUR 92 -- COURT DECISION IN PERAK
Classified By: Political Counselor Brian D. McFeeters for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
Summary and Comment
1.
(SBU) Poloff and Pol Specialist visited the politically turbulent state
of Perak from February 1-3. Perak is one of five states won by the
opposition People's Alliance (PR) coalition in the March 2008 general
elections, but through political defections in February 2009 it
subsequently reverted back to authority of Malaysia's ruling National
Front (BN) coalition (refs A and B), and is firmly under BN control
after a February 9, 2010 Federal Court decision affirming the BN Chief
Minister (ref C).
Perak is a microcosm of Malaysia's ethnic
diversity with party affiliation drawn clearly along ethnic and
religious lines. Ethnic Malays are split between the BN's dominant
United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party and the opposition's
People's Justice Party (PKR) and Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS), while
nearly all ethnic Chinese and a slight majority of ethnic Indians
support the opposition PR over the BN, according to a February 5 Merdeka
Center poll.
2. (C) Comment: Events in Perak are significant
for two reasons. First, for the past year it has been ground zero for
the fight between the two political coalitions. Perak is the only state
that had an active fight over control of the state for the past 12
months, so the issues there reflect national sentiment. Second, the
fight and ultimate victory by the BN in Perak was a successful political
power play both in terms of brute and refined power, reminding us that
of the two coalitions, only the BN has the clout, money, and ability to
manipulate the government system (election commission, courts) to muscle
its way to power.
The BN now has firm control of Perak and is
working to regain some of its lost influence among voters, having
allocated resources into projects to win back support of the people.
With the Chinese vote firmly supporting the opposition, the deciding
votes in any future election rest with the ethnic Malays, not because
they hold a majority among the populace (they represent just over 50%),
but because their support is most split between the ruling coalition and
the opposition. That said, while the opposition PR is united in its
criticism of the ruling BN coalition, they remain somewhat fragmented
both within their coalition, and within their component parties.
End Summary and Comment.
Setting the Scene: Political Background
3.
(SBU) Perak had been a bastion of the ruling BN coalition since
Malaysia's independence in 1957 until the March 2008 general election,
when the opposition PR coalition stunned the BN and took control of the
state government by winning 31 of 59 state assembly seats.
Within
the PR, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) won 18 seats; the People's
Justice Party (PKR) won 7 seats; and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS)
won 5 seats. Although the DAP earned more seats than their coalition
partners combined, the position of Chief Minister went to PAS
assemblyman Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, because the Perak state constitution
stipulates that only a Muslim can hold the position of Chief Minister
(CM).
On the BN side, the United Malays National Organization
(UMNO) won 27 of their 28 seats while the Malaysian Chinese Association
(MCA) took the remaining seat. Two other BN partners, the Malaysian
Peoples Movement Party (Gerakan) and Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC),
were all but rendered obsolete as neither won a single contested seat.
The
DAP's dominance came as a result of ethnic Chinese and Indian
discontent with the MCA, Gerakan, and MIC, who traditionally have
represented their interests within the BN coalition. In February 2009,
after 11 months in power, the PR state government lost its majority in
the state assembly following the defection of three PR state assembly
members to become independents friendly to the BN.
The net
change in 3 seats left the BN with the majority of seats and resulted in
a protracted controversy when the Sultan of Perak replaced PR Chief
Minister Nizar (equivalent to a governor of a U.S. state) with BN's
Zambry. The Federal Court ruled on February 9 that the change of chief
minister was legal (ref C).
Insights from Perak Politicians
4.
(C) Poloff and Pol Specialist visited Perak from February 1-3, and met
with representatives from every major political party in peninsular
Malaysia: from the ruling National Front (BN) coalition, the
coalition-leading United National Malays Organization (UMNO), the
Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), Gerakan, and the Malaysian Indian
Coalition (MIC); from the opposition People's Alliance (PR), politicians
from the People's Justice Party (PKR), the Democratic Action Party
(DAP), and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS).
In a February 1
meeting with PAS Perak committee members at their headquarters,
including former Perak Chief Minister (CM) Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin and
Perak PAS Chief Ustaz Abu Bakar Hussain, Nizar called the policies
implemented by the PR government from March 2008 thru February 2009
"successful and people friendly." He noted that the current BN
government has copied and implemented many of the PR's government
policies while claiming full credit for them.
DAP MP Fong Po
Kuan later told Poloff that she didn't mind if the BN claimed credit for
these policies, stating that it was more important that they were
implemented, and that "they clearly benefitted the people."
Nizar
also claimed that during his term of office, the PR state government
had managed to increase revenues by cutting waste and promoting open
tenders. In the past the BN government only extended "negotiated
tenders to their cronies."
5. (SBU) In a brief February 1
meeting, current Chief Minister Zambry (UMNO), exuded confidence in his
performance during his first year. He saw himself as the rightful Chief
Minister because "it is clearly the will of the people."
Zambry
opined that the BN in Perak has acted in a more professional and
competent manner than the PR did when they were in power. Noted Zambry:
"We were a responsible opposition for eleven months," but when the
opposition lost the majority, they "refused to abide by democratic
principles."
Zambry commented that in the 12 months since the
BN took back control of Perak, the BN has been working very hard to
gain the confidence of the people, noting that the BN had embarked on
"people friendly policies" -- the same term Nizar used -- by focusing on
poverty eradication irrespective of race and a good economic
development policy.
Perak State Secretary Dr. Abdul Rahim
Hashim reiterated that the two policies were the main thrust of the BN
government policies in the state. Zambry said the results of the BN
were showing, noting that when compared to opposition gatherings, "there
is marked increase in support for BN gatherings" and that he has
received feedback that "the people are generally happy with the BN state
government."
6. (C) On February 2, Chang Ko Youn, the state
chief and national deputy president for the marginalized Gerakan party,
admitted that the Chinese voters "deserted the BN by droves" in the last
general election.
(Note: Gerakan went from 10 to 2 MP seats
in the March 2008 general elections, and from 4 to 0 seats in the Perak
state assembly. End Note.)
He cited UMNO's "racist policies"
as one cause, adding that the Chinese media were "unfriendly" towards
BN. Chang pointed out that, unlike the government-influenced mainstream
media, the Chinese newspapers are more independent and at times favor
the opposition rather than BN parties. The veteran leader said it would
be difficult for BN to win over the Chinese voters in the next general
election.
7. (C) Dr. Mah Hang Soon, the MCA state youth chief
and sole non-UMNO state assemblyman for the BN, was a bit more
optimistic. Mah noted that the BN is "now more aware of the Chinese
problem" and is "working on overcoming it." He cited the case of
Chinese farmers, who have farmed on state land for decades, who were
recently given land titles. The state government has also started
funding the nine independent Chinese schools in the state, whereas in
the past the BN state government had completely ignored the plight of
independent Chinese schools. Mah opined that the previous PR government
only "made promises" but the BN state government "is now delivering" on
them.
Dr. Mah also noted that the Chinese community was
especially concerned about the ongoing inquest into the July 2009 death
of political aide Teoh Beng Hock while under investigation, opining that
the Malaysian Anti Corruption Commission (MACC) needs to get to the
bottom of this soon, even if they themselves are to blame.
8.
(C) MIC Perak state secretary and new Perak state Speaker R. Ganesan
echoed Mah's views, claiming that the 12-month old BN government has
enacted numerous polices for the benefit of non-Malays. Ganeson proudly
stated that for the first time the state government has allocated
funding for Hindu temples.
(Note: The previous PR government
started the policy of allocating funds to non-Islamic religious
institutions, but it is the BN who is seeing this through. End Note.)
Ganesan
added that he could see the Indians returning to the BN based on the
number of people attending BN-sponsored meetings and political rallies.
Both Sides at Risk as Snap Elections too Risky to Consider
9.
(SBU) Prior to the February 9 court decision, both Zambry and Nizar
publicly claimed that they had enough support from voters to win any
snap election, fueling speculation that regardless of how the decision
panned out, the legitimized Chief Minister would call for elections and
end the controversy once and for all. Zambry told Poloff on February 1
that if snap elections were held, he was confident the BN would win 34
out of 59 seats in the state assembly, citing discontent with PKR and
PAS among voters.
When asked by Poloff if he would call for
snap elections should he win the February 9 decision, Zambry said he
would not dissolve the state assembly, saying that "the Perak BN state
government does not operate based on the dictates of the opposition."
Nizar,
in turn, countered that he had the support of 80% of the Chinese and
Indian vote, and at least 50% of the ethnic Malay vote, challenging
Zambry that the only way to prove his claim would be to call for a snap
election in Perak.
Nizar told Poloff that even with fresh
elections, there is no guarantee that the PR would win a majority of
seats to form a government. Nizar stated that the BN has managed to
"poison the minds of the rural Malays" by convincing them that he was "a
lackey of the DAP" and "had committed treason by defying the Sultan"
after the defections. PAS State Treasurer Abdul Rahim Ariff concurred
with Nizar's view, adding that if elections were held today the Malay
votes would split evenly between UMNO and PAS, unlike in March 2008 when
there was clear swing of Malay votes towards PAS and PKR.
10.
(SBU) State senior UMNO Cabinet Minister Ramly Zahari concurred with the
Chief Minister's views that the BN has no reason to dissolve the state
assembly. He stated that the opposition is the one who "started the
game" by wooing BN Members of Parliament and state assembly to cross the
floor. As such the veteran state UMNO leader added that when the BN
managed to outflank PR, "the opposition now wants to rewrite the
rules."
(Note: Ramly is referring to an UMNO assemblyman who
crossed over to the PR in January 2009. A few days after the crossover,
he returned to the BN and was joined by the three ex-PR assemblyman who
claimed to be BN-friendly independents. The opposition believes that
the initial crossover was orchestrated by UMNO to prepare the ground for
the three others to jump to the BN side. End Note.)
11. (SBU)
DAP Perak State Chief Ngeh Khoo Ham and DAP State Secretary Nga Kor Ming
(who are first cousins) were optimistic on February 2 that magic of
March 2008 would continue to prevail in Perak if snap elections were
held.
While admitting that there is a slight shift in Malay
support in favor of the BN, Ngeh stated that a majority of urban Malays
and most of the Chinese and Indians would vote for a PR coalition party.
After the Ruling: What's Next for PR and BN?
12.
(C) PKR Vice President and MP in Perak Lee Boon Chye told Poloff on
February 2 that despite the setback caused by the BN takeover and
subsequent court rulings, the PR is still very popular in Perak. Lee
claimed that "80 percent of Perakians are still behind us."
Ngeh
and Nga (DAP) claim that the opposition has continuously been harping
in their numerous political gatherings through out the state that the
current state government "is an illegal court appointed entity" and
vowed they would continue their disharmonious campaign after the Federal
Court ruling of February 9.
However, Nizar announced after the court decision that the opposition would instead cooperate with BN.
13.
(C) Zambry said on February 1 that PR leadership in Perak was becoming
increasingly desperate. Decreased numbers and a general lack of
enthusiasm at recent opposition rallies showed that people were tired of
the PR acting like a sore loser, and were ready to move on. As a
result, claimed Zambry, the PR has embarked on a strategy to smear the
image of the BN-led state government.
He cited two examples of
the smear campaign: that he was accused of being denied entry to the US
recently for "being involved in terrorist activities," and news reports
that investors are shunning Perak since the BN wrested power.
Zambry
is suing the PKR newspaper "Suara Keadilan" for RM 400 million for what
he says were libelous claims about his US trip. He noted that
investments have actually increased since the BN took over, claiming
that the Perak state government has attracted RM11 billion (about USD 3
billion) in one year.
(Note: Regarding the investments, Nizar
and other PR leaders in Perak dispute this figure, claiming that some of
the investments came to the state when the PR was in power. End
Note.)
Zambry expected the opposition to continue with their
smear tactics, commenting that "their position is increasingly under
threat."
Coalition, Party Infighting Continue to Impact Opposition
14.
(C) DAP MP and Vice President Kulasegaran admitted that all is not well
with the DAP in Perak. Kula claimed that the "Ngeh-Nga clan" referring
to the cousins, is running the show in Perak. The veteran DAP leader
claimed that the top party leadership is unable to control the two, as
they have managed to bring the state DAP machinery completely under
their control.
Kula claimed that due to their dominance, the
DAP may face some problems in the future because they are not popular
among all the Chinese in the state. For example, the cousins tried to
force out popular DAP MP Fong Po Kuan from running in the 2008 general
election in order to replace her with their own crony, but her
constituency fiercely resisted this move against the three-term MP,
forcing the cousins to back down.
Poloff raised this topic while meeting Fong for lunch, but she refused to be drawn into a conversation on this issue.
Poll: Voters Split Along Ethnic Lines
15.
(U) The independent Merdeka Center announced results of a poll taken of
Perak voters on February 5. Current CM Zambry has an approval rating
of 43%, while former CM Nizar has an approval rating of 46%. Zambry's
base of support comes from 2/3 of the ethnic Malays and 1/2 of the
Indians; Nizar's support comes from the remaining 1/3 of the Malays, the
other 1/2 of the Indians, and nearly all of the Chinese.
(Note:
the ethnic breakdown for Perak's 2 million citizens is approximately
52% Malay, 32% Chinese, 13% Indian, and 3% others. CM Zambry is an
ethnic Indian but is Muslim by religion. End Note.)
In
addition, 38% of respondents believed Perak is moving in the right
direction, up from 31% polled in April 2009, while 44% believed the
state was moving in the wrong direction, with distinct differences of
opinion when broken down by ethnic lines.
KEITH