Malaysians winding down for the year-end may already have to start bracing for tough times in 2014, the World Bank says.
According
to its Economic Monitor report on the country released on Dec 10,
household expenditures will take a hit as the government continues to
cut subsidies and other policies.
It said that even with cash
aids like the Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia (BR1M), households will need to
tighten their belts, leading to a dip in private consumption.
It
also said that BR1M will cost the government RM7.1 billion, so the
actual cut in fuel subsidy is expected to expand from 23 percent today
to 28.6 percent in 2014 to meet savings targets.
Happily,
however, the World Bank expects inflation to rise “only modestly” in
2014 from 2.3 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent, due to benign supply
conditions such as weak commodity prices.
“Reduced energy
subsidies, not only in terms of additional fuel price hikes but also an
adjustment of electricity tariffs, may have a knock-on impact on
consumer prices, as may the wider introduction of the minimum wage.
“Private
consumption may also be negatively affected by possible interest rate
hikes and tighter credit markets, with signs of weaker credit expansion
already appearing this year,” the report said.

It
added that poor prospects for agriculture commodities will also bring
pain to smallholders. This would include the roughly 420,000
smallholders under the Federal Land Development Agency (Felda) scheme.
However,
the World Bank said, firm employment and wages as well as higher
welfare cash aid like the BR1M can help to ease the pain for households
to an extent.
Even then, it said, private consumption growth to slide to 6.5 percent in 2014, a significant dip from 8.4 percent in 2013.
The
World Bank expects private consumption to pick up to 7.2 percent in
2015, but this will still be lower than 2012 figures, where private
consumption grew by 7.7 percent.
“Growth in government
consumption will come in at 6.0 percent in 2013 (largely due to high
growth in the second and third quarters) before contracting in 2014 by
0.1 percent,” it said.
Gov’t must watch its spendingIt
said that while subsidy cuts are an effort to reign-in the deficit, the
coffers will be hit by a reduction in oil-related revenue.
There
will be a potential boost in corporate and personal taxes, despite tax
breaks offered in the Budget, but it will not be enough to truly reel in
the deficit.
“Therefore, the reduction in the deficit will need
to be achieved through expenditure restraint,” the Economic Monitor
report said.
It said the government’s efforts will mean lower
development levels, with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to drop from 54.8
percent to 54.3 percent.
“Long-term fiscal sustainability will
require continuing on the path of consolidation, while carefully
monitoring and managing contingent liabilities and other sources of
fiscal risk,” it said.
The debt-to-GDP ratio does not take into
account contingent liabilities, which include government-backed bonds
and other guaranteed debt by government-linked corporations.