By Anil Netto
PENANG - The political tide that earlier rolled against Malaysia's ruling United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led coalition appears to have turned again in its favor, raising the prospects for possible early polls.
The latest indication of the shift: two by-election wins by comfortable majorities over the weekend in two state assembly constituencies. The wins leveled the by-election tally at eight each for the Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition and opposition Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance) since the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition made significant gains in the March 2008 general elections.
However, the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition has recently been on a roll, winning seven of the last eight by-elections held since
October 2009. The next big test will come at the Sarawak state elections, which must be called by July but are widely tipped to be held in April. Together with neighboring Sabah, the two states account for a quarter of the seats in the federal parliament.
If the BN wins comfortably in Sarawak, some political analysts reckon a snap general election could be on the cards in the months ahead. General elections are not due until 2013 but UMNO has historically called for snap polls when its popularity or the economy have run on high.
Most of the BN's recent poll victories, including weekend wins in Pahang state's Kerdau and Malacca's Merlimau, have come in rural or semi-rural seats. The one opposition victory in the last six by-elections was picked up by the opposition Democratic Action Party in the town of Sibu in Sarawak.
Apart from the usual opposition complaints of abuse of state agencies during by-election campaigns and relentless pro-government propaganda over state-influenced electronic and print media, there are several political and economic factors working in the BN's favor.
For one, global crude palm oil prices are soaring, representing a boon to the country's many small-scale palm growers under the government's Federal Land Development (Felda) schemes. The benchmark May contract price was above 3,500 ringgit (US$1,155), a huge increase over last year's 2,701 ringgit and 2008's average of 2,236 ringgit. With those high prices, analysts believe Felda settlers will vote solidly for the BN.
"Some of these settlers now live comfortable lives with the prevailing high commodity prices,'' said a Pahang-based local activist who observed the Kerdau by-election won by the BN. ''Concepts like human rights mean little to them.''
Natural rubber prices have also shot up, benefiting some 300,000 smallholders in rural areas. According to a recent Edge weekly report, rubber growers' incomes have recently surged, in some instances tripling since the 2008-9 economic downturn. SMR 20 natural rubber is now trading at over US$5 per kilogram, compared to around $1.50 at the height of the crisis.
With commodity prices booming, analysts say it's no wonder that the BN's popularity has bounced back in many rural and semi-rural areas after suffering electoral setbacks in 2008. But there's another factor analysts say might explain the BN's about-turn since October 2009: prime minister Najib Razak's use of the ''1Malaysia'' slogan.
A poll conducted recently by the research group Ilham Center ahead of the by-election in Merlimau showed that 56.5% of respondents said that apart from issues related to local infrastructure and facilities the 1Malaysia campaign would influence how they vote at the next polls.
The political slogan was first rolled out in September 2010 and called on leaders, government agencies, and civil servants to more strongly emphasize national unity, ethnic harmony, and effective and efficient governance. "1Malaysia's goal is to preserve and enhance ... unity in diversity which has always been our strength and remains our best hope for the future," says Najib at his 1Malaysia website.
Opposition politicians have been highly critical of the campaign, often pointing to the hypocrisy between the message of unity and UMNO's traditional championing of race-based policies that favor ethnic Malays over ethnic minority groups. The introduction of 1Malaysia came at a time when ethnic minority parties in the coalition - namely, the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress - were at a low ebb after being hammered at the 2008 general election.
Despite the ethnic harmony and national unity sloganeering, many right-wing ethno-nationalist Malay groups have simultaneously emerged in promotion of a more exclusivist vision of the country's future. They have often railed against more liberal-democratic individuals and civil society groups who are seeking to build a more inclusive society.
Clive Kessler, emeritus professor of sociology and anthropology at Australia's University of South Wales, contends that while the 1Malaysia slogan conveys and resonates with both notions of national belonging - 'civic nationalism' and 'ethno-nationalism' - most Malaysians hear only one of the messages.
''On the one hand there are many who yearn for this nation to be, to become in gradual and progressive stages, a truly inclusive, modern national community, a multiethnic and culturally inclusive nation of a generally liberal-democratic kind,'' Kessler wrote in a recent commentary.
"There is another notion. It holds that there is One Malaysia, only one Malaysia, not many. There is only one Malaysia, and it is ours. Since it is ours, we set the terms here. If you wish to be part of it you may. There is a place for you here, and we will tell you what it is."
An opposition PAS Penang state committee member who participated in recent by-election campaigning in Merlimau views similarly the ruling coalition's use of the controversial slogan.
"The BN in its campaigning uses the 1Malaysia slogan to mean different things to different groups of people,'' he said. ''When campaigning in the Malay areas, BN speakers say this 1Malaysia is for development and to promote ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy or dominance), apart from talking about and attending to local problems. When talking to minority communities, they talk about importance of unity, and how we have to be together, as we are all Malaysians."
It's therefore no wonder that the recent Ilham poll found that the 1Malaysia slogan appealed to a majority of respondents in Merlimau. But while the BN appears to have turned the tide in many rural areas, it will find a similar shift more difficult in urban areas, where voters have more access to alternative news and information and are feeling the pinch of rising fuel, food, and housing prices.
That's a still significant divide in perceptions, one that may yet stall the temptation for UMNO to call early elections and run on a ticket of harmony and unity.
Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.
PENANG - The political tide that earlier rolled against Malaysia's ruling United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led coalition appears to have turned again in its favor, raising the prospects for possible early polls.
The latest indication of the shift: two by-election wins by comfortable majorities over the weekend in two state assembly constituencies. The wins leveled the by-election tally at eight each for the Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition and opposition Pakatan Rakyat (People's Alliance) since the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition made significant gains in the March 2008 general elections.
However, the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition has recently been on a roll, winning seven of the last eight by-elections held since
October 2009. The next big test will come at the Sarawak state elections, which must be called by July but are widely tipped to be held in April. Together with neighboring Sabah, the two states account for a quarter of the seats in the federal parliament.
If the BN wins comfortably in Sarawak, some political analysts reckon a snap general election could be on the cards in the months ahead. General elections are not due until 2013 but UMNO has historically called for snap polls when its popularity or the economy have run on high.
Most of the BN's recent poll victories, including weekend wins in Pahang state's Kerdau and Malacca's Merlimau, have come in rural or semi-rural seats. The one opposition victory in the last six by-elections was picked up by the opposition Democratic Action Party in the town of Sibu in Sarawak.
Apart from the usual opposition complaints of abuse of state agencies during by-election campaigns and relentless pro-government propaganda over state-influenced electronic and print media, there are several political and economic factors working in the BN's favor.
For one, global crude palm oil prices are soaring, representing a boon to the country's many small-scale palm growers under the government's Federal Land Development (Felda) schemes. The benchmark May contract price was above 3,500 ringgit (US$1,155), a huge increase over last year's 2,701 ringgit and 2008's average of 2,236 ringgit. With those high prices, analysts believe Felda settlers will vote solidly for the BN.
"Some of these settlers now live comfortable lives with the prevailing high commodity prices,'' said a Pahang-based local activist who observed the Kerdau by-election won by the BN. ''Concepts like human rights mean little to them.''
Natural rubber prices have also shot up, benefiting some 300,000 smallholders in rural areas. According to a recent Edge weekly report, rubber growers' incomes have recently surged, in some instances tripling since the 2008-9 economic downturn. SMR 20 natural rubber is now trading at over US$5 per kilogram, compared to around $1.50 at the height of the crisis.
With commodity prices booming, analysts say it's no wonder that the BN's popularity has bounced back in many rural and semi-rural areas after suffering electoral setbacks in 2008. But there's another factor analysts say might explain the BN's about-turn since October 2009: prime minister Najib Razak's use of the ''1Malaysia'' slogan.
A poll conducted recently by the research group Ilham Center ahead of the by-election in Merlimau showed that 56.5% of respondents said that apart from issues related to local infrastructure and facilities the 1Malaysia campaign would influence how they vote at the next polls.
The political slogan was first rolled out in September 2010 and called on leaders, government agencies, and civil servants to more strongly emphasize national unity, ethnic harmony, and effective and efficient governance. "1Malaysia's goal is to preserve and enhance ... unity in diversity which has always been our strength and remains our best hope for the future," says Najib at his 1Malaysia website.
Opposition politicians have been highly critical of the campaign, often pointing to the hypocrisy between the message of unity and UMNO's traditional championing of race-based policies that favor ethnic Malays over ethnic minority groups. The introduction of 1Malaysia came at a time when ethnic minority parties in the coalition - namely, the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress - were at a low ebb after being hammered at the 2008 general election.
Despite the ethnic harmony and national unity sloganeering, many right-wing ethno-nationalist Malay groups have simultaneously emerged in promotion of a more exclusivist vision of the country's future. They have often railed against more liberal-democratic individuals and civil society groups who are seeking to build a more inclusive society.
Clive Kessler, emeritus professor of sociology and anthropology at Australia's University of South Wales, contends that while the 1Malaysia slogan conveys and resonates with both notions of national belonging - 'civic nationalism' and 'ethno-nationalism' - most Malaysians hear only one of the messages.
''On the one hand there are many who yearn for this nation to be, to become in gradual and progressive stages, a truly inclusive, modern national community, a multiethnic and culturally inclusive nation of a generally liberal-democratic kind,'' Kessler wrote in a recent commentary.
"There is another notion. It holds that there is One Malaysia, only one Malaysia, not many. There is only one Malaysia, and it is ours. Since it is ours, we set the terms here. If you wish to be part of it you may. There is a place for you here, and we will tell you what it is."
An opposition PAS Penang state committee member who participated in recent by-election campaigning in Merlimau views similarly the ruling coalition's use of the controversial slogan.
"The BN in its campaigning uses the 1Malaysia slogan to mean different things to different groups of people,'' he said. ''When campaigning in the Malay areas, BN speakers say this 1Malaysia is for development and to promote ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy or dominance), apart from talking about and attending to local problems. When talking to minority communities, they talk about importance of unity, and how we have to be together, as we are all Malaysians."
It's therefore no wonder that the recent Ilham poll found that the 1Malaysia slogan appealed to a majority of respondents in Merlimau. But while the BN appears to have turned the tide in many rural areas, it will find a similar shift more difficult in urban areas, where voters have more access to alternative news and information and are feeling the pinch of rising fuel, food, and housing prices.
That's a still significant divide in perceptions, one that may yet stall the temptation for UMNO to call early elections and run on a ticket of harmony and unity.
Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.
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