By Stephen Winfred - Free Malaysia TodayKUCHING: As the campaign moves into overdrive with less than 48 hours to go before polling on Nov 4, the spotlight has shifted to the Chinese voters and a probable 'covert' PKR-Barisan Nasional alliance which could hand BN's Linda Tsen a win.
Based on a voter turnout of between 65% to 70%, all three parties have assessed their chances.
If the voter turnout hovers between 65% to 70%, then about 12,000 to 13,000 registered voters are expected to cast their ballots on Nov 4.
Batu Sapi has 25,582 registered voters of which 9,737 are Chinese voters and 1,535 postal voters.
BN is only targetting 25% of the 9,737 Chinese votes and relying on the 60% Bumiputera Muslim votes.
Based on this 'simple expectation', BN is expected to win the seat by a 1,000 to 1,500-vote majority.
Backing this projection is BN's believe that it has about 1,000 staunch Chinese voters in the bag.
It is secretly hoping that rival candidate PKR's Ansari Abdullah will be able to 'steal' between 1,500 to 2,000 Chinese voters from third contender, Sabah Progressive Party's Yong Teck Lee, splitting the Chinese votes significantly three ways.
If PKR does manage to swing this, then together with BN's 'in the bag' 1,000 votes, Yong would only stand to get 3,000 to 3,500 Chinese votes. This would not be enough for SAPP to capture the seat.
"We believe Yong will garner only about 3,000 Chinese votes. If he manages to get more than 4,000 Chinese votes, we will be in trouble.
"The best indicator is that, if by 2pm on Nov 4, the Chinese voter turnout does not surpass 40%, then we will have to work hard on the Bumiputera votes. We have to bring out every single Bumiputera voters to cast their ballots," said a BN election campaigner.
Insignificant PKR
PKR, which is unlikely to make an impact in this by-election, on the other hand is hoping to get 40% Bumiputera votes and 20% Chinese votes.
On the paper, BN has in its grasp some 5,500 votes, which includes 1,500 odd postal votes and 3,000 Bumiputera voters living in the constituency, concentrated in water villages and surrounding islands.
The BN election machinery is said to have located and convinced these 3,000 out of the 5,000 Bumiputera voters in the constituency and are on the hunt for the remaining 2,000 Bumiputera voters.
This, observers claim, would provide the BN a sense of confidence going into the final round of the battle knowing very well that it has 60% of Muslim Bumiputera support.
This Muslim Bumiputera support has come from the Suluk, Bajau, Orang Sungai, Bugis, and Brunei Malay communities.
To add to this tally, fishermen living along the coast and on the islands are also expected to come to the aid of the BN.
All of them make-up 60% of Batu Sapi's electorates.
Yong's strategy
However there is fear that Yong could slice away more than the 25% Chinese vote which BN is targetting.
SAPP is targeting 80% Chinese voters with its “Sabah for Sabahans” campaign. It is also banking on at least 20% Bumiputera votes.
The party is using Nahalan Damsal, a former state minister and ex-PKR Batu Sapi chief, who has openly declared his support for Yong rather than Ansari.
Nahalan is said to command some respect in Sekong, one of the two state constituencies that make up Batu Sapi. The other state seat in the constituency is Karamunting.
At the 2008 general election, Nahalan garnered 2,082 votes when he contested the Sekong state seat, which he lost to incumbent Samsuddin Yahya (BN).
While SAPP seems to be confident on the outside, it is concerned with DAP's "whispering campaign" that Yong will take the SAPP back to the BN fold if he wins the parliamentary seat.
This, observers note, can inflict massive damage on Yong's chances.
Apart from that, the DAP also has about 1,500 members in Batu Sapi and if these members were convinced to vote for PKR, it would dampen Yong's chances of creating an upset in this by-election.
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