By Patrick Lee - Free Malaysia TodayPETALING JAYA: Umno's “keris” rattling at its general assembly is an indication that snap polls are coming, say political observers.
Professor James Chin of Monash University said that the majority of the speeches made at the general assembly were geared towards the general election.
Chin predicted that the general election would be held by the end of the year, or in the first quarter of 2011 when the country was in a period of strong economic growth.
He added that the country's current economy may have been helped by last year's RM67 billion stimulus packages.
“We got out of the recession because of them (the stimulus packages), but nobody knows how next year's economy is going to be,” he said.
“Running an election costs a lot of money. Would you want to run an election when the economy is uncertain?” he asked
Ong Kian Ming, UCSI University political analyst, said that the speeches at the general assembly reflected the current political landscape.
He added that Umno's generals had been paying attention to this and have been styling their speeches to suit the prevalent political climate.
Ong, however, disagreed with Chin's predictions over the election dates, adding that it was unlikely that the 13th general election would be held before the Sarawak state election, due before April 2011.
“My assessment is that it is more likely that the state election will be held in February or March,” he said.
He forsees a late 2011 or early 2012 time-frame for the snap polls, and that the outcome of the Sarawak state election may be used as a “litmus test” for the general election.
“On the economic front, it will take some time before various government projects can be confirmed, passed and 'monetised' by certain parties,” he said.
Concurring with his views, UIA law professor Abdul Aziz Bari nevertheless called the Umno general assembly speeches a case of “playing to the diehards”.
He said that Umno did not practise what it had preached on inclusiveness, especially after it had booted members of the alternative media from the media room yesterday.
The Perkasa factor
Aziz also said that Umno did not earn itself any good points by cozying up to the right-wing Malay NGO Perkasa.
“Except for Nazri (Abdul Aziz, Minister in the Prime Minister's Deparment), many of Umno leaders don't shy away from Perkasa,” he said. Athough this year's general assembly had seen a “different” Umno, he did not say if it was a better party.
When it came to snap polls predictions, Aziz said that they were a definite possibility in 2011. “Everything seems to be falling in place,” he said.
He also said that a good sign was Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak's silence on Anwar's allegation on the supposed RM250 million Election Commission (EC) budget.
He added that the Sarawak state and federal elections may be held simultaneously, citing the upcoming Galas and Batu Sapi by-elections as an example.
“At first, the EC said that the Galas and Batu Sapi polls weren't going be held concurrently, but later decided to hold them on the same day," Aziz told FMT.
On Oct 11, EC chairman Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said that concurrent by-elections in both Batu Sapi and Galas were not likely.
Four days later, however, he pulled a 180-degree turn, saying the Batu Sapi's nomination and voting dates will held on Nov 4.
Abdul Aziz Bari said that concurrent by-elections would be in BN's favour. "We will either have simultaneous elections or no elections at all."
He also said that Umno had been thus far playing a cautious game when it came to elections.
Recently, Umno appeared to be trying its best to avoid a Kuala Nerang by-election campaign, especially after its assemblyman Sobri Syed Hashim was declared a bankrupt.
“You can see how they are trying to avoid it, which is in stark contrast to what they are used to doing,” Abdul Aziz Bari said, adding that Umno was usually more than ready when it came to contesting in by-elections.
However, he said the ruling government would not have the upper hand in the upcoming snap polls, adding that Umno was stuck between a rock and a hard place “of its own doing”.
The next general election must be held before April 2013.
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