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Friday, 26 March 2010

Hulu S’gor early outlook – stats, candidates, strategies

With all respect to the late Dr. Zainal Abidin (who I remember as a very pleasant, friendly man), let’s start having a look at the fight ahead.

Hulu Selangor is quite an interesting seat. We won it by the skin of our teeth indeed, a 200 vote majority in an electorate of about 67,000 (still need persuasion that your vote counts?)

Here’s the thing – there are three state seats within this parliamentary constituency, and BN won them all – two convincingly (Hulu Bernam, 3,549 majority; Batang Kali, 2,179 majority), and one closely (Kuala Kubu Baru, 448 majority).

One line I hope Umno will use is that the big wins were all Umno wins, whereas the small majority win was MCA and the (parliament) loss was MIC.

This is going to be a massive fight, and my personal prediction is that BN will go all out – by hook, (and more likely) by crook. I expect massive shenanigans. Simply because BN cannot afford to lose.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Uthayakumar makes a play, and I’m not sure how it will affect things – though overall, I doubt for the better.

Candidates are going to play a key factor here. Dtk Zaid’s name has already been bandied about. He’s a good man, though I am not sure how much his appeal extends to semi-rural/rural Selangor.

BN will take a big internal risk if someone besides Palanivel runs, but then again, they take a big risk running him too.

In any case, I think all have had plenty of time to prepare, and I suspect candidates has already been chosen.

Many things are up in the air, but as always – lawan tetap lawan!

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