Today’s judgment is likely to prolong the political tussle instead of ending it until and unless the state assembly is dissolved for fresh elections, something the BN has said it will not do. – Picture by Jack ooi
By Baradan Kuppusamy - The Malaysian Insider
KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 9 — The decision of the five-member bench of the Federal Court today as to who should be the rightful Perak Mentri Besar is unlikely to end the fierce political tussle between the Pakatan Rakyat and the Barisan Nasional coalitions.
Political uncertainty has gripped Perak since the PR government fell on Feb 5, 2009 after three of their assemblymen abandoned the coalition, crossed the floor and became BN-friendly lawmakers.
They remain BN-friendly until now and any hope they would return to PR, as speculated earlier, has already disappeared.
Lawyers say today’s judgment is likely to prolong the political tussle instead of ending it until and unless the state assembly is dissolved for fresh elections, something the BN has said it will not do.
For BN, the longer elections are delayed the better as it gives them more time to persuade voters to back them.
PR is hoping to dissolve the assembly for a snap election to strike while the momentum is with them.
“Long delays are fatal for us,” said one PR assemblyman.
“The Perak voter profile — 51 per cent Malay and 49 per cent non-Malay — is working against us.”
“Even a five per cent non-Malay voter swing to Barisan will be bad for us…it’s that close,” the assemblyman said while requesting anonymity.
“We agree with opinion polls that show Malay and Indian voters are gradually drifting back to the Barisan. We can’t take back Perak just on Chinese voters alone.”
Chinese voters, many of whom have benefitted considerably — in terms of land deals and governance — in the 11 months that PR ruled, are solidly behind former MB Nizar.
If the court rules that Nizar is the rightful Mentri Besar, that would mean a major and climactic battle ahead for PR to get back on the saddle especially since it remains a minority in the 59-seat state assembly.
BN, with the backing of the three defectors, have 31 seats against PR’s 28.
“If Nizar is declared MB the change over would be climatic because the old exco has to leave, the new exco has to take over and there is a big question mark over all the decisions that the Zambry-administration has taken,” said a pro-PR lawyer.
“The whole process of government would come into question,” he said.
Speaking at several political rallies this month, Sitiawan assemblyman and Perak DAP chief Datuk Ngeh Koo Ham said, in the event Nizar is declared MB, PR would seek legal advice to determine whether they can re-write some of Zambry’s decisions.
Only after that, he told supporters in Ayer Tawar last week, would PR seek an audience with the Sultan of Perak to dissolve the state assembly for fresh elections.
“We expect the gate to the palace to open but some delay in meeting the Sultan,” the PR lawyer said.
“The ruler might not see us immediately depending on how busy he is.”
PR lawyers expect BN to use the intervening period — between the declaration and audience with the Sultan — to convene an emergency session of the legislature to pass a vote of no confidence against Nizar.
They could then approve a vote of confidence in Zambry.
“They will then proceed to the palace and announce their right to be the government again,” the lawyer said.
If Zambry is declared Mentri Besar, the decision would barely register a blip and the BN state government would continue business as usual.
BN, even if they win the court battle, would not want snap polls.
The thinking in the BN camp is to continue efforts to win hearts and minds right up to the next elections.
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