Can Subramaniam make it?

By Baradan Kuppusamy - The Malaysian Insider

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 11 — The focus of the MIC election tomorrow is the fierce three-cornered contest for the deputy president’s post in which incumbent Datuk G. Palanivel is being challenged by former deputy president Datuk S. Subramaniam and newcomer Datuk S. Sothinathan.

For party president Datuk Seri S Samy Vellu, who is backing Palanivel, 60, the battle is what Tamils call maana perachanai or an issue of personal pride.

If Palanivel loses it is not only the end of his political career but the defeat would put the final nail in his coffin.

After dominating the MIC since 1979 it will be the exit door for Samy Vellu following his defeat in Sungei Siput in 2008, the loss of the Works Ministry and his sidelining by the political establishment.

Samy Vellu is going all out to help Palanivel win, seeing in his victory a chance to hang on for more years as MIC president.

In the unlikely chance that Sothinathan is victorious, Samy Vellu is likely to easily dump Palanivel and embrace his former blue-eyed boy through whom he could also extend his tenure.

But he would face unrelenting pressure to quit if Subramaniam upsets his plans and emerges victorious.

What is Subramaniam’s chance for victory?

It is a question in the minds of many Malaysians, not just MIC members but also Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat supporters.

The Subramaniam today is different from the leader who contested Palanivel in a straight fight in 2006 and lost miserably by polling only 495 votes to Palanivel’s 933.

After March 8, after Hindraf and after Makkal Sakthi, Subramaniam is emerging as the only MIC leader able to stand on his own and is seen as the one person in the Indian community who can give the MIC a future.

Large crowds of Indians, many of them expelled from the party, had gathered to hear Subramaniam speak during his campaign stops across the country.

In Klang last night nearly 1,000 Indians, many of them not even MIC members, gathered to hear Subramaniam speak for change and why the MIC needs to change now or face death.

A specially made video of Subramaniam – his rise, work, contributions – were shown to the crowd who clapped and cheered at every turn.

Earlier when Subramaniam arrived they carried banners depicting his slogan Change for the Better, and shouted Subra! Subra! At one point they hoisted him onto their shoulders.

It was the kind of Indian grassroots welcome given to lawyer P. Uthayakumar in the wake of the Nov 25, 2007 Hindraf protest.

While he might he attacked and sidelined in the MIC, Indian community support for Subramaniam is growing among former party members who had supported the Pakatan Rakyat.

The enthusiastic reception he got on his campaign rounds is evidence of this, his supporters said, pointing to fact that his campaign promise to reunite the MIC and take back all individuals expelled from the party, has touched their hearts.

“They want to come back but they have no place to come to, no home unless the MIC opens the door to them again,” said Datuk K. Tangavellu, who was part of the crowd in Klang on Thursday night.

Subramaniam may be gaining ground in the Indian community as perception of him as rebel leader gains credence but to win in the deputy president’s contest he needs to convince at least 720 of the 1,450 MIC delegates to back him.

Subramaniam supporters claim they started the contest with 500 votes in hand. These are hardcore Subramaniam supporters.

“We need another 250 votes and victory is ours,” they said adding that they expected Sothinathan to split the remaining 1,000 votes and give Subramaniam a chance slip through.

“It would be a narrow victory,” his supporters said adding the winning majority would be about “50 or 60 votes.”

Such an optimistic prediction belies the fact that Samy Vellu has been working hard criss-crossing the country to win support for Palanivel.

He has been working the telephone for up to 18 hours a day, his senior aide said.

“We are confident of victory but a narrow one,” he said adding that at least 800 of the delegates are “diehard” Samy Vellu supporters.

“They will vote as directed by Samy Vellu…without question,” he said.

In addition Samy Vellu’s camp is euphoric over their belief that the support given to Subramaniam by former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would backfire as the party rank and file did not like it.

“This is clear interference in MIC politics to help Subramaniam…it will backfire,” a senior MIC leader said.

“Mahathir did little for Indians in the 22 years as Prime Minister and for him to support Subramaniam now does not go down well without delegates.”

Samy Vellu has been capitalising on the issue, attacking Subramaniam for bending over backwards to betray the MIC with an “outsider.”

Samy Vellu has another chance to go for the jugular on this issue after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak opens tomorrow's assembly.

“That’s when Samy traditionally gives a speech in Tamil just before voting starts,” said the veteran MIC leader. “He might use the Tun Mahathir-issue to move delegates to reject Subramaniam for inviting outside interference in the MIC election.”