By Alan Ting
KUALA LUMPUR, March 11 (Bernama) -- Support from Indian voters will
again be key in the country's next general election (GE) as it was in
the 2008 polls, say political analysts.
Malaysians of Indian origin now account for 1.9 million out of the
country's 28 million population or 7.3 percent. But they feature
significantly in 63 out of 67 parliamentary seats in Peninsula Malaysia.
A noticeable trend swept through the 2008 polls when almost 85 per cent
of the Indian votes went to Pakatan Rakyat (PR), the opposition pact
comprising PKR-DAP-PAS.
PR largely benefited from the shift in support from 72.4 per cent for
Barisan Nasional (BN) in 2004 to just 8.3 per cent in 2008 as a result
of issues played up by the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf).
But a discernable trend has emerged this time around: support from
Indians for BN has improved, thanks to a number of pro-active actions
spearheaded by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak on fundamental
issues like Tamil schools, Hindu temples and education.
This also explains why Najib's approval rating along ethnic lines is the
highest at 80 per cent among Indians, according to a recent survey by
the Merdeka Centre.
Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst at Universiti Sains
Malaysia, says that results of various by-elections in Bukit Selambau,
Bukit Gantang, Bagan Pinang and Hulu Selangor since 2008 clearly showed
that Indian support for BN had improved.
He attributes this to Najib's readiness to engage on key concerns
affecting the Indian community and that this support pattern would last
through the next GE, especially with Indian-based NGOs playing an
important role in monitoring the achievements of PR-controlled states.
The academic claims that PR had failed to meet the expectations of
Indian NGOs or to work closely with Hindraf, an unregistered but vocal
NGO, which had been dominant in the vote swing towards the Opposition in
2008.
After 2008, Hindraf split into five groups. One is with DAP, two others
are the newly-formed Makkal Sakti Party and the unregistered Human
Rights Party of Malaysia(HRPM) and the rest NGOs.
Of the five, the most influential is HRPM, and if it decides to take
part in the upcoming GE, it may be able to split support between BN and
PR.
Dr Sivamurugan says BN needs to capitalise on Najib's strong standing
among Indians in that "one vote for BN also means a vote for Najib".
To do that, BN will have to look for suitable candidates who can convince voters on that equation, he adds.
MIC Youth chief T. Mohan, who also notes the positive winds of change,
estimates that the MIC now has 60 to 65 percent support among Indians.
This has been largely due to various factors like changes in the party
leadership, more funding for Tamil schools, and more places for Indian
matriculation students, he says, adding that Najib's 1Malaysia outreach
programme had clipped much of their resentment of the past.
Although some issues remained unresolved, Mohan believes that MIC could
get close to what it got in 2004, with support expected to reach 70 to
75 per cent with suitable candidates and provided that "no one makes
unnecessary remarks that could hurt the feelings of the community."
DAP vice-chairman and Member of Parliament for Ipoh Barat, M.
Kulasegaran, however, dismissed BN's claim of growing support among
Indians, saying that it was unsubstantiated.
"PR has invited MIC for a debate on Indian issues like the one between
(DAP secretary-general) Lim Guan Eng and (MCA President) Datuk Seri Dr
Chua Soi Lek.
Their (MIC) reluctance shows that they don't have support. They will be
lucky if they win or retain the three parliamentary seats they have
now," he said.
Kulasegaran asserted that many basic issues like high unemployment,
deplorable conditions in Tamil schools, lack of study loans or
scholarships and low Indian participation in the equity market had not
been fully addressed.
"I believe the Indians still prefer PR for its openness and willingness
to speak up for them and attend to their needs. PR was able to appoint
an Indian as the first DCM (deputy chief minister) in Penang and a
Speaker to the Perak state legislative assembly," he said.
But now, political analysts feel that there is perception among some
Indian NGOs like Hindraf that PR is "focusing primarily" on Malay and
Chinese voters" or handling Indian issues on a piecemeal basis and hence
the fear that their "representation" through PR could be lost.
This explains why some are saying that support among the Indians is
split down the middle, with both BN and PR saying that they have their
support.
PR could be the biggest loser this time around if it fails to garner Indian support as it got the lion's share then.
If 30 per cent of registered Indian voters decide not to vote, it also
means that both sides have to compete for the remaining 70 per cent,
which is largely split into three unique "segments" -- the lower, middle
and upper classes.
Hindraf still has some influence left. If it stays away from the GE, it could cause PR to lose its grip on Selangor and Kedah.
Getting Hindraf on board could mean that PR has to accept demands from
HRPM, Hindraf's unregistered political wing, of five to seven
parliamentary seats.
Datuk Dr Denison Jayasooria, Principal Research Fellow, Institute of
Ethnic Studies, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, believes that Hindraf
does not have mass appeal anymore because of in-fighting.
He also thinks that the lower classes seem to be largely with BN while the middle and upper classes are with the opposition.
Saying that MIC's chances would be better than 2008 but not 2004, this
can only happen if it fields open-minded candidates who appeal to other
communities as well since the resolution of the MAIKA share issue and
MIC leadership change had made it difficult for PR to exploit.